Well-known Republican Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez clinched the victory in a close race with first-term Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Gimenez’s victory, called by the Associated Press, chips away at Democratic leanings in Florida’s 26th Congressional District, which includes the southwest portion of Miami-Dade County. The district went for Hillary Clinton by 16 points in 2016, but voters split the ticket that year, keeping former GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo in his seat by a 12-point margin. Mucarsel-Powell edged Curbelo out by just 2 points in 2018.
“I promise you I’ll be a much more effective congressperson and reach across the aisle,” Gimenez said in remarks in front of his house, declaring victory. “I won’t be as partisan as my predecessor.”
It’s a blow for Democrats. Several rating agencies, including the Cook Political Report, had moved the race to “lean Democratic” in the final days of the campaign.
“This will surprise a lot of elections prognosticators and sound alarm bells inside the Democratic Party,” Curbelo said in a tweet.
Gimenez’s win is also an optimistic sign for President Trump, suggesting that he may have closed some of his gap in the district by winning back some Latino voters. Roughly two-thirds of the district’s voters are Latino, including many Cuban Americans who tend to lean Republican. Gimenez immigrated from Cuba when he was a young boy.
Polling ahead of Election Day showed that Trump was doing better than 2016 among Latino voters in Miami-Dade County, whereas turnout risked being lower among Hispanic Democrats in the county.
Despite being the incumbent, Mucarsel-Powell, 49, entered the race with less name recognition than Gimenez, 66, who has served as Miami-Dade’s mayor since 2011. Gimenez has never lost an election in his political career, which includes serving as a Miami-Dade County commissioner for nearly a decade.
Mucarsel-Powell outraised and outspent Gimenez, who was forced to balance campaigning with dealing with the coronavirus pandemic. Miami-Dade, Florida’s most populous county, has been a hot spot for the virus.
The Democratic incumbent had also sought to make the election a referendum on Trump, attempting to link Gimenez with Trump’s policies, particularly on healthcare and the pandemic. The president endorsed Gimenez just hours after he announced his candidacy, even though the Miami-Dade mayor had said previously he voted for Clinton in 2016.
Gimenez, during his campaign, tied Mucarsel-Powell to the far-left wing of the Democratic Party. Mucarsel-Powell, who was the first South American immigrant elected to Congress, voted mostly along party lines during her first term in Congress. Her seat on the Judiciary Committee also brought her some higher-profile publicity during Trump’s impeachment proceedings.
