Former President Barack Obama’s entry into the presidential race is an effort to boost Democratic Party turnout against President Trump and secure votes that fell by Hillary Clinton’s wayside in 2016, according to Democratic strategists.
“You’ve got both camps firmly entrenched with their support base, and the question is now turnout, turnout, turnout, turnout,” said Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll, pointing to Obama’s address in Philadelphia on Wednesday. “That’s what Obama was doing there yesterday.”
“You only need two or three points to come back,” veteran Democratic operative Joe Trippi said, pointing to “young people in the Democratic base, but also some of those voters who moved to Trump.”
He continued: “I think it’s clear in Philadelphia, he gets both those things. He gets to turn out and energize young people in the base. At the same time as he’s talking to a lot of those blue-collar workers who saw the promises of Trump and may have liked what they heard in 2016. But know it didn’t happen. And Obama can appeal to them.”
“Obama is still very well-liked among voters in the country,” said Democratic strategist and pollster Roshni Nedungadi, pointing to a favorability rating of 55.7% in May, according to YouGov.
Moreover, “a big part of Obama’s winning coalition in both 2008 and 2012 were young voters and voters of color,” she said. Though Biden leads with both cohorts, “he needs to ensure that their turnout numbers remain as high as they were in the elections where Obama was at the top of the ticket.”
This is especially true “for black and Latino men,” Nedungadi said.
Obama “has a unique ability to put his foot on the pedal and get people’s attention, and have them respond,” said T.J. Rooney, the former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. “You heard him talk specifically to Pennsylvanians about our [mail-in ballot] process, which is way more worrying than others. Now is the perfect time.”
Trump on Thursday suggested that Obama’s entry could shore up Republican votes.
“Obama is campaigning for us. Every time he speaks, people come over to our side,” Trump tweeted. “He didn’t even want to endorse Sleepy Joe. Did so long after primaries were over!”
“Not to disrespect the president and his unbelievably skillful political interpretation of things, but I think he’s sorely mistaken in this reading,” Rooney said.
“Just enough young voters and voters of color sat out in 2016 … that Trump was able to squeak out a win in crucial swing states,” Nedungadi said. “Many of these young voters and voters of color had previously supported Obama and turned out in large numbers to vote for him, so now it will be about bringing these disenchanted voters back into the political process.”
Obama’s entry now into the race acts as a “closing argument,” Nedungadi said, reminding voters of the “optimism, and ‘hope and change'” that he and Biden brought in 2008.
Democrats “are just trying to juice up turnout to try to move the margins,” Republican strategist and former Trump 2016 campaign official Bryan Lanza said. This is where Obama is going, “because the race is closing in,” Lanza said. “You saw him in Pennsylvania yesterday, in Philadelphia, and then you see him in Miami.”
Pointing to polling in some swing states beginning “to tighten,” he added, “I think they thought they had it won.”
“It’s going to be a pretty relentless effort, you know, starting yesterday,” said Rooney, a Democrat.
