A new poll shows Donald Trump has a 7-point lead over Ted Cruz in California, but also reveals that Cruz is ahead in several districts, which will make it harder for Trump to take the lion’s share of delegates in the state.
If the poll’s results hold true, the California primary could make it harder for Trump to get to the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the GOP nomination outright.
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The Field Poll conducted for the Sacramento Bee says Trump has the support of 39 percent of likely Republican voters, followed by Cruz at 32 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 18 percent. About 11 percent of respondents are undecided.
But the poll also says Cruz is winning in Los Angeles County and other areas. The Bee says those regional differences are “significant because California Republicans award nearly all of the 172 delegates by congressional district, three delegates each to the winner of each district.”
“The result that we got in this poll does not benefit Trump’s chances,” Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, tells the Sacramento Bee. “If these regional differences persist, the delegate allocations will be more divided (among candidates).”
The poll says Trump’s support “relies heavily on his appeal to white men who are at least 50 years old.”
It also found that voters who preferred the movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger for governor now favor a reality television star for president. Trump earned the support of many Schwarzenegger voters, and leads Cruz by a three-to-one margin in this demographic.
The Field Poll was conducted from March 24 to April 3 by telephone in English and Spanish. The poll reflected the responses of 558 voters deemed likely to participate in California’s June primary. The survey had a 3.2 percentage point margin of error.
