Assuming the Philippines Army has indeed killed Islamic State leader Isnilon Hapilon, that terrorist’s death is good news for global security.
On Monday, releasing photos of two dead individuals bearing resemblance to Hapilon, and another ISIS leader, Omar Maute, the Philippines’ top military officer claimed that ISIS would soon be cleared out of the southern Philippines city of Marawi. ISIS has held large sections of Marawi since May, but a slow moving Philippines Army effort now appears to have forced the group to its last legs.
Still, Hapilon’s death is special news aside from the situation in Marawi.
For a start, the terrorist leader encapsulated ISIS’ ability to win the support of competent jihadists in other terrorist groups. Formerly a senior leader in the Philippines-based terrorist organization, Abu Sayyaf, Hapilon pledged himself to ISIS in July 2014, shortly after the group seized Mosul. Taking other Abu Sayyaf fighters with him, Hapilon gave ISIS a Philippines faction defined by combat experience and local credibility. That Hapilon and Maute have now been killed will reduce ISIS’ ability to contest territory with the Philippines government. Back in June, things were looking a lot less positive.
The second benefit of Hapilon’s death is that it will help to subdue the strategic narrative that allows ISIS to win followers. Inspired by ISIS’ dramatic successes in Iraq and Syria during 2014, many Filipino jihadists responded to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s call for recruits and swore fealty to his banner. They were far from alone. Appealing to jihadists, psychopaths, and losers around the world, ISIS’ establishment of a caliphate seemed to prove that the group was the incarnation of God’s ordained will.
Yet now that Hapilon has died a bloody death at the hands of the Philippines armed forces, ISIS’ cause will seem a little less attractive. It’s not just about Hapilon. As I’ve explained, ISIS’ continuing loss of territory has cost it credibility in the eyes of wannabe terrorists. ISIS hoped that Marawi would be the beginning of a Southeast Asian caliphate, a stepping stone towards greater conquests, and proof of holy protection. Instead, as is now the case with Raqqa, Syria, Marawi is just another marker for ISIS failure.
To be sure, this doesn’t mean that the ISIS threat is evaporting; as in Europe, the opposite is in some ways true. Nevertheless, Hapilon’s demise is a positive development in the fight against al-Baghdadi’s hordes.
