Democratic candidates face a chaotic campaign ahead of early state primary and caucuses, thanks to Nancy Pelosi’s decision to hold up impeachment.
Although the House voted to impeach President Trump on Dec. 18, the House speaker has yet to deliver the articles of impeachment to the Senate. That means four Democratic presidential candidates, Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and Cory Booker of New Jersey, won’t be able to make any concrete travel plans in Iowa before the state’s caucuses on Feb. 3.
The two front-runners who aren’t sitting lawmakers, former Vice President Joe Biden and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, could have Iowa to themselves in the weeks leading up to the first Democratic presidential primary contest.
“All the senators would be stuck in D.C., leaving Iowa and elsewhere to everyone else. Impeachment’s also not really a voting issue in the Dem primary, so whatever coverage the senators get off of the hearings wouldn’t matter much. We would much rather be doing local events in the early states and talking about healthcare jobs, educations, etc.,” said an aide to an unnamed campaign.
Some Democrats who spoke with the Washington Examiner feared Pelosi could deliver the articles of impeachment this week, meaning a Senate trial could start as soon as next Monday. The first Democratic primary debate of the year, also in Iowa, is Jan. 14.
“The Democratic campaigns have gotten a lot trickier given the news of the last few weeks. The reality is, they’re going to have to be in D.C. for the impeachment process, no matter what. For me, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens with the debate among other things,” said Democratic strategist Jim Manley. “It all depends on when the Senate process is up and running, but for any candidate looking to have some downtime for debate prep, they might be pulling an all-nighter.”
Since the impeachment proceedings against Trump began, Democratic senators running for president had been aware that a trial would likely interfere with their campaigning. Before Pelosi’s gambit of holding onto the articles of impeachment, however, the conventional wisdom for White House hopefuls was that the trial would start shortly after the New Year, which would give their campaigns a sense of when to plan campaign stops.
“This is a big plus for Biden. People like Klobuchar who depend on in-person events for fundraising are going to face real issues,” said former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Biden supporter. “If you’re someone like Sanders, who makes most of their money through email, you can afford to fly to Iowa for a quick day trip and then back to D.C. All of this is happening while Biden is coming back in Iowa, if you look at the polls, and that’s a state he doesn’t even need to win, just have a strong finish.”
For candidates who are strapped for cash or facing diminishing fundraising, that means their staffs will have to make hard choices about when they’re certain a candidate’s Senate duties won’t conflict with a campaign stop. Alternative methods of campaigning, such as Skype chats or relying on surrogates, may become the norm.
On Monday, failed presidential candidate Julian Castro announced his support for Warren. The two have already planned rallies together later this month. Other candidates, meanwhile, rely on surrogates; Sanders has Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York to campaign on his behalf.
Sanders, Buttigieg, and Biden are currently in a three-way virtual tie at 22%, 21.7%, and 20.3% support, respectively, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls conducted in the last 30 days. For Iowa voters, who are notorious for not firmly settling on a candidate weeks before the caucuses, a candidate’s absence in the state could hold major consequences for how he or she finishes.
“Any good staffer is going to have a hell of a lot of options to deal with what’s going on. I can only assume you’re going to have to make some bets on when and where to campaign. Folks are going to lose some money sometimes when things don’t pan out,” Manley said.
