Over the next several months voters will be able to scrutinize the candidates for governor, incumbent Robert Ehrlich and Baltimore Mayor Martin O?Malley.
At this point in the race, Gov. Ehrlich seems to be making stronger inroads in Baltimore City than he did four years ago. His campaign commercials, running in the Baltimore media market for almost two months, tout a centrist agenda and make educational reform in Baltimore City a cornerstone of his re-election bid.
Ehrlich?s message is on point. Problems retaining stable leadership and budget accountability are just two issues plaguing the system.
And the commercials seem to be working. Polls show the governor gaining ground against O?Malley.
Oddly, O?Malley?s campaign commercials touting health care coverage for working families do not air with the same frequency as Ehrlich?s campaign on education.
And for an entire month, the O?Malley campaign did not run a single commercial focusing on the Baltimore City public schools. He started to air them recently, but by that time the governor?s commercials on educational conditions in Baltimore City had saturated the market.
The reason for the delay begs the question ? Is O?Malley confident his administration has the support of the city?s majority African American population locked up?
If he thinks so, it might serve him well to reassess his support. City parents now have the option to send their children to newly chartered schools, and are doing so ? an indication of their concern about city public school performance.
And O?Malley alienated the black community two years ago with his profanity-laced outbursts against Baltimore City State?s Attorney Patricia Jessamy. The two sparred over policy differences about crime statistics and crime fighting methods.
The anger from this exchange still lingers, and he has much fence-mending to do before he can claim to have captured the black vote in the city.
As a result, the strategy that O?Malley has employed of airing fewer commercials on education, economic empowerment and public safety in the Baltimore media market may backfire.
It hurt another politician who took voters for granted.
In the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore assumed he had locked up the votes of his home state of Tennessee.
He shouldn?t have; it went Republican. Although it is not likely that a similar outcome could happen in Baltimore City because of an intense party loyalty, a decent showing in at least the 30th percentile or more range by Gov. Ehrlich in the city would increase his overall margin of victory statewide.
Lest we forget, before Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan dropped out of the race for governor in June, he made significant gains on O?Malley.
Pockets of pro-Duncanand anti-O?Malley sentiment still exist and could hand the governor the good showing that he needs in the city.
The frequency of the governor?s campaign commercials seem to be saying to the voters of Baltimore City that he is not taking their votes for granted.
If he continues on the same trajectory, these commercials could help the governor take a big chunk out of a heavily Democratic base.
Solomon Iyobosa Omo-Osagie II is a professor of political science at Baltimore City Community College. He can be reached at [email protected]
