Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced a renewed Ukraine offensive “in all operational directions.”
Will this mean a new offensive from Belarus, where military readiness exercises recently concluded? While it’s debatable whether Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko would actually invade Ukraine with his own forces, they force Ukraine to ready a sizable force to defend Kyiv against surprise attack.
Still, this latest offensive could become Russia’s Battle of the Bulge — their last, best chance at an offensive to break the will of the Ukrainian military. Another round of leadership changes, mounting casualties, the introduction of antiquated T-62 tanks, and a pick-up game of soldiers thrown into a battle of attrition certainly seems like a Hail Mary pass. Why the rush to resume the offensive?
One word — HIMARS, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System provided by the U.S. With eight systems in operation, and four more heading to the front, Russia understands the necessity of not being static in assembly areas, logistical supply points, or fuel depots. His ground forces have been on the receiving end of this weapon system, and they respect it. While in an operational pause, Russia presents targets that HIMARS’ mobility and munition range allow them to strike with precision. The need to resume the attack along multiple avenues of approach, from “all operational directions,” is key. This forces Ukraine to defend along multiple approaches, limiting the effectiveness of HIMARS before more systems can be deployed to Ukraine. Russia’s problem: The Ukraine military has been exceptional at repelling columns of tanks and creating backlogs along road networks, thus presenting easy targets for artillery and drone strikes. Russia has also shown a distinct weakness in terms of speed, integrated operations, and effective command and control.
HIMARS, the Javelin anti-tank system, and Switchblade drones have disrupted the Russian way of war. Russia only knows one way: artillery and the frontal assault. Creatures of habit, however, the Russian armed forces have now returned to the very tactics that got them bogged down in the first place, except that now, they are playing with their third and fourth teams. Getting more HIMARS onto the battlefield is critical.
This may be Ukraine’s Bastogne moment.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
