Bernie Sanders’s promise of “free college for all” could face opposition at the state level, where he expects state governments to help the federal government cover the cost.
Tight state budgets, along with ideological opposition, could sink Sanders’s plan before it resembles anything like what he advocates, according to CNN.
State budgets for higher education have crept up steadily for decades as more students enroll in public colleges. While states had almost 9 million students in college, that number had increased to 11 million by 2014. States paid about 71 percent for funding their public colleges in 2000, but that decreased to about 53 percent by 2014.
As the student population rose, states relied on tuition to split the difference. The recession made higher education a prime target for cuts, and though much of that funding has been restored, state funding of higher education remains below pre-recession levels.
Regardless of how a college education gets funded, the student demand for a degree hasn’t abated. Enrollments are steady or increasing at public and non-profit colleges as they decline at for-profit schools. The Sanders plan could cause states to move away from a reliance on tuition, but it would require appropriations at a time when state budgets don’t have much spare funding for higher education.
Keeping costs low would be a struggle. Colleges and universities have made little progress on slowing down tuition increases, and federal funding could exacerbate the problem, as easy access to grants and loans makes it possible for students to pay higher tuition rates. With student demand increasing, colleges can charge higher prices without lowering the number of students they accept.
For now, it’s hard to estimate the affect of the Sanders plan. His proposal lacks detail for now, though the campaign suggests his previously introduced legislation where the federal government covers two-thirds of the cost, and the states one-third. That would be an annual cost of $75 billion, the campaign estimated.
The plan would be “fully paid for” by a Wall Street speculation tax. It’s questionable whether that math works, however. Sanders has made rosy predictions about his health care plan before, and campaigns tend to underestimate the costs of a new program. If students don’t have to pay tuition, that could lead to a surge in the number of student enrolling as well. When price falls, demand rises, and those hidden costs can add up quickly.
Tuition-free college would relieve many students from hefty costs. Those costs, however, don’t disappear. The Sanders college plan isn’t a proposal for how to lower costs. It’s a proposal to shift costs from the main beneficiaries, students, to the state and federal governments. The political will to make “free college for all” a reality could be difficult to generate, especially as college students don’t vote in high numbers.
