It sounds odd, but President Trump’s silence on Hong Kong protests might serve the protesters better than his words.
I note this in light of CNN’s report that Trump pledged to President Xi Jinping of China that he would not mention the protests while U.S.-China trade talks continue.
Don’t misunderstand me — the United States should support those protesting for freedom in Hong Kong. Xi Jinping’s trampling of human rights shreds China’s Sino-British treaty commitment to respect those rights until 2047. It speaks volumes about the Chinese Communist regime’s nature. It is a disgrace. Yet American support must be calibrated to that which best serves the protesters. And I fear Trump’s words might presently do more harm than good.
The basic issue here is that Xi, ultimately, is the one who is going to fix the situation in Hong Kong. And there are only two ways he can do so: by compromising with the protesters, or by crushing them with his military. If Xi chooses the latter option — which is increasingly likely — Trump should immediately and aggressively condemn him. Trump should then push for sanctions on China. But if Trump speaks up for the protesters now, he risks pushing Xi toward using military force.
That’s because Xi does not see Hong Kong as an isolated issue. Instead, he sees Hong Kong as a test both of the Communist Party’s future and his own ambition to displace the U.S.-led international order. The difference between Hong Kong and other tests Xi faces (such as China’s telecommunications access to the global economy, and Xi’s island campaign in the South China Sea) is that Hong Kong is personal. Hong Kong doesn’t simply pit Chinese citizens against a dynamic political-economic model that Xi needs Chinese citizens to embrace. It pits the people against the party. And that threatens the sanctity of the party’s mainland authority. That makes Hong Kong Xi’s existential test.
Were Trump to publicly support Hongkongers he would be seen by Xi and the Standing Committee as making a direct personal challenge to Xi’s leadership. The great risk is that Xi would then alter his strategic equation. At present, Xi is reluctant to deploy the military in fear that doing so will greatly damage China’s global relationships. But if Trump speaks up, Xi may see himself facing his defining moment of truth: whether he can withstand American pressure. And if Xi does see it that way, he’ll respond with a unequivocal and public rebuttal. Or put another way, with a Peoples Liberation Army deployment into Hong Kong streets.
Obviously we should wish to avoid that outcome. But it also must be said that the protesters are currently winning. As they continue marching in great number and fury, Beijing’s puppet in Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, continues with idiotic responses such as the self-defeating facemask ban. Nor is this to say that the U.S. should stay silent. On the contrary, Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo should take the lead in showing more vocal American support for Hongkongers. The U.S. should persuade its allies to join this effort.
But unless and until Xi sends in the military, there is a good case for Trump to remain quiet.
