Today is Super Duper (Fat) Tuesday, and hundreds of delegates are at stake. While Barack Obama was advertising during the Super Bowl and Hillary Clinton was crying in Connecticut, the Republicans were largely focused on California. Although John McCain is generally considered the frontrunner and recent polls show what bloggers are calling “Mitt-mentum” for Romney, it seems that a California win–or at least gaining a large number of CA delegates–is vital to both candidates. The Politico reported yesterday that McCain and Romney were “racing back to California for surprise Super Tuesday rallies as some polls show the race tightening in the Golden State”:
MSNBC’s First Read reports that Romney is confident — and getting snarky: “‘I understand that we’ve now brought Sen. McCain back to California, too,’ Romney said. ‘He’s like, ‘Oh wow, Romney’s there — I better go back there and see if I can’t shore up the race there.’ But he’s sliding in California.'” But Richelieu has another idea: “Jumpin’ Johnny McCain is in very strong shape, very likely to be the nominee. Great advantage for the Mac in the winner-take-all primaries. Romney has some hope of an upset in California, but it is not winner-take-all, so the delegate payoff will be limited. Mitt may pull a few caucus wins, but the national numbers look tough.” John Hinderaker says that for Romney to remain “credible,” “he needs to ‘win’ California, even though that is not a winner-take-all state. Second, he needs to pull an upset in at least one state that is now leaning toward McCain, maybe Missouri, and also win Georgia, which is now a toss-up.” Allahpundit asks, “If [Romney] gets wiped out elsewhere and pulls the upset on the coast, is that enough Mitt-mentum to make him go forward?”, noting that Romney has to win in California “to have a reason to get out of bed tomorrow morning.” And Ross Douthat argues that even a California win might not be enough for Romney since he would “need the press…to cast him as the ‘comeback kid’ even though McCain will still have won more states and delegates, both today and overall. And the media, as you may have noticed from time to time in this election cycle, likes McCain an awful lot more than it likes Romney.” Pro-Romney bloggers are nonetheless excited about Romney’s California poll numbers. Hugh Hewitt writes that “a win in California propels [Romney] to at least Ohio and Texas in early March and could indeed turn it decisively against McCain.” And Jay Carney at Swampland argues that California is equally important for McCain. So, since the polls are just now opening in California, everyone should probably just relax and enjoy a food-filled Fat Tuesday instead.
