A new study claims that the coronavirus pandemic could last into 2022.
“The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population,” researchers at the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy wrote.
The finding could complicate decision-making as states move to reopen their economics. The report also stated that the herd immunity needed to end the pandemic may not be achieved until 60%-70% of the population is immune to the virus.
The study bases its predictions on examining eight previous influenza pandemics dating back to the 1700s. From that research, it derives three likely scenarios for the pandemic.
In the first scenario, the current wave of the pandemic is followed by smaller waves of infections for the next one to two years. The second scenario predicts the current wave will be followed by a larger wave sometime in the fall or winter of this year, followed by smaller waves in 2021. That pattern is similar to what occurred during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic. In the third scenario, the current wave is followed by a “slow burn” of continuing infections but follows no discernible pattern.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the Trump administration’s White House coronavirus task force, has warned that a second round of the coronavirus is inevitable and that, if the United States is not properly prepared, it “could be in for a bad fall and a bad winter.” He has also expressed concerns that states may be “leapfrogging” federal guidelines for reopening.
