A poll of Arizona Republicans conducted last week but released today shows Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz 31 percent to 19 percent, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio tied at 10 percent.
The most encouraging news for Cruz is that the poll finds 30 percent of Republicans remain undecided. Late deciding voters have broken against Trump in almost every state that has voted so far. If enough of these voters and Rubio supporters back Cruz, he could pull off an upset and capture all of Arizona’s 58 delegates.
Trump is favored to win Tuesday’s primary not only because of his polling advantage, but also because he has the backing of former governor Jan Brewer. Immigration is a top issue for many Arizona Republicans, but Trump may have hurt himself among these voters by announcing that he was “softening” his position on immigration in a recent debate and showing himself to be ignorant about the details of his own immigration plan in an earlier debate. In 2013, Trump suggested he was open to supporting “amnesty” once the border was secure and illegal immigration stopped.
Arizona is a closed primary, which means only registered Republicans can vote, and that could also hurt Trump. John McCain, who led comprehensive immigration reform efforts in 2006, easily fended off a Tea Party challenger in 2010, defeating his opponent by 24 points.
