Donald Trump leads in Iowa in three polls released in the past two days. In all three polls, the lead is small, well within the margin of error. But string together three Iowa leads of 4 pts, 2 pts, and 2 pts, and it tells you something. Not only had Ted Cruz not pulled away in Iowa. It’s now a Cruz-Trump tie.
Beneath the Surface
ARG divided the Iowa electorate into definite voters and probable voters. Among the definite voters, Cruz and Trump were tied at 27 percent, with Rubio at 11. Among the merely probable votes, Trump dominated with 42 percent.
A full 26 percent of Iowa Republicans in the Q poll say they would never support Trump. That would matter more in a less crowded field. Notably, only 7 percent say they would never support Cruz — a striking figure for a man universally reviled inside the Beltway.
Along the same lines, Cruz has the highest favorables in the Q poll (75 percent, which is 8 points ahead of second-place Rubio), and the lowest negatives (17 percent). His favorables are up 30 points in Iowa since he entered the race.
PPP shows the same thing: Cruz with the highest Iowa favorables and the lowest Iowa unfavorable. The same is true in New Hampshire.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
