OBAMA OUT OF OPTIONS ON SYRIA: As the bombing by Russia and the regime of Bashar Assad moved from humanitarian relief centers to hospitals, and as the misery of Syrian civilians grows more unbearable, President Obama last night indicated there simply may be nothing more the United States can do. “There is not a scenario in which, absent us deploying large numbers of troops, we can stop a civil war in which both sides are deeply dug in,” he said during a town hall event on CNN. The president offered no Plan B now that Secretary of State John Kerry’s deal with Russians has collapsed. “Unless we can get the parties involved to recognize that they are just burning their country to the ground, and get it on a diplomatic and political track,” Obama said, “frankly, there’s going to be a limit to what we can do.”
KERRY’S FUTILE THREAT: Kerry’s response was to sternly warn Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that the U.S. is prepared to cut off all engagement with Russia on Syria unless Russia immediately stops its assault on Aleppo, Joel Gehrke writes. “[Kerry] stressed that the burden remains on Russia to stop this assault and allow humanitarian access to Aleppo and other areas in need,” according to spokesman John Kirby in his readout of the morning phone call.
DRIPPING WITH SARCASM: Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham mercilessly mocked Kerry’s ultimatum. “Finally, a real power move in American diplomacy. Secretary of State John ‘Not Delusional’ Kerry has made the one threat the Russians feared most — the suspension of U.S.-Russia bilateral talks about Syria,” the senators wrote Wednesday. “No more lakeside tete-a-tetes at five-star hotels in Geneva.” Mariana Barillas has the full story here. You’ll definitely want to read the rest of their statement.
SHUTDOWN AVERTED: The Senate passed legislation yesterday to fund the federal government through Dec. 9, and provide $1.1 billion to fight the Zika virus, after the bill was stalled for weeks by Senate Democrats, averting a threatened Monday shutdown, Susan Ferrechio reports. The latest hurdle to its passage was the lack of any language to provide aid to Flint, Michigan, which is still dealing with a lead water crisis. But most Democrats were able to accept the spending bill after a bipartisan deal reached Tuesday that will ensure money for Flint is included in a separate bill authorizing water projects. With that deal in hand, the Senate decided to quickly move the bill through the upper chamber, just two days before the end of the fiscal year. Senators were expected to rush home afterward, and aren’t expected to reconvene until after the Nov. 8 election.
Late last night the House passed the bill and sent it to Obama for his signature. Republicans split on the bill 170-75. Only 10 Democrats voted against it, and the measure passed easily, 342-85. Crisis averted. See you at work Monday morning.
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ON THE VERGE OF VICTORY? The Pentagon announced that 615 additional U.S. troops will be sent to Iraq to provide logistical support, intelligence, training and military advice as Iraq prepares to lay siege to Mosul. The U.S. troops will be split between two support hubs, Qarayyah West, near Mosul and Al Asad west of Baghdad, where the U.S. is rebuilding the airfields. The deployment will bring the number of American troops in Iraq to 5,262, but the real significance is that the U.S. hopes it will be the last increase in the force level.
Why? Because their mission is to support the Iraqi Army as it captures Mosul, the last big Islamic State stronghold, which is expected to break the back of ISIS in Iraq. “To be frank, there are no major objectives after that,” said Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis. “This is it. This is the last big holdout in Iraq for ISIL. Beyond that we’re talking small towns and wide open desert area.”
Defense Secretary Ash Carter, speaking to reporters in New Mexico, did not rule out any future troop increases, saying that decision would depend on the advice of military commanders, and require the approval of both Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. “We are certainly going to continue to help the Iraqi security forces in whatever measure and manner they wish to consolidate the control over their country after they’ve re-captured this last major ISIL center,” Carter said last night. He said the campaign to expel ISIS from Mosul will “intensify,” in the coming weeks. Can you say, “October Surprise?”
WHO NEEDS A SOFA? While some see the latest deployment as incrementalism and mission creep, other critics point out that the growing U.S. troop presence undercuts Clinton’s argument that the U.S. had no choice but to withdraw all its troops from Iraq in 2011, under an agreement signed by President George W. Bush. In Monday night’s debate, Clinton repeated the claim. “The only way that American troops could have stayed in Iraq is to get an agreement from the then-Iraqi government that would have protected our troops, and the Iraqi government would not give that.” But the U.S. now has 5,000 troops in Iraq without the benefit of a Status of Forces Agreement or “SOFA,” although they are there at the invitation of the Iraqi government.
ABSOLUTE MINIMUM: Rep. Ryan Zinke, a former SEAL and current GOP congressman, said the 615 additional U.S. forces being sent to Iraq are an “absolute minimum” and do not put American troops in a position to be adequately supported and win decisively. “I don’t think that force is sufficient to look at the contingencies that could happen … if we get into a situation where we have wounded [forces], where are they going to go? Is it within an hour’s flight? Is that hospital protected?”
Rep. Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, criticized the White House for repeatedly announcing troop boosts without asking for more money in fiscal 2017 to pay for them. “Today, the president announced another incremental deployment to the Middle East, but still remains silent on how he intends to support them. That is simply unacceptable,” Thornberry said in a statement.
WHAT NEXT ON NORTH KOREA?: All the sanctions levied so far by the administration have hit North Korea in the pocketbook, but have failed to stop North Korean nuclear tests, prompting senators to ask State Department officials: What else can we do? Specifically, members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee targeted their questions toward what more the U.S. can do to get China to step up and make North Korea stop its nuclear testing. Daniel Fried, the State Department’s coordinator for sanctions policy, said more Chinese firms are under investigation for ties to North Korea, but declined to give specifics in an open hearing.
“MEGALOMANIAC, CALCULATING, DELUSIONAL” That’s CIA Director John Brennan’s assessment of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. In an interview that aired on CNN, Brennan said, “I wouldn’t say he’s reckless at this point because I think he’s taken steps that really go up to the brink, but do not go past it.” But he added, “He is delusional because he believes that the world is going to accept a nuclear North Korea and allow it to maintain that arsenal.”
In that wide-ranging interview Brennan revealed how his old dormant AOL email account was hacked. “Individuals who called the Internet service provider and presented themselves as people who worked for that company, that’s how they got in,” Brennan said. His advice: “Everybody should have double authentication.”
OVERRULED: In a first, Obama lost a veto fight with Congress on Wednesday after Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate voted overwhelmingly to override his objection to a bill that would allow families of the Americans killed in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to sue the government of Saudi Arabia, writes Susan Ferrechio.
The bipartisan vote came despite lobbying from Obama to uphold his veto. Obama said he objects to the bill because it could damage U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia and could undermine America’s own sovereign immunity against lawsuits. The Senate voted 97-1 to override Obama’s veto, and the only “no” vote was from Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid.
Reacting to the news, Obama said “It’s a dangerous precedent, and it’s an example of why sometimes you have to do what’s hard,” Obama said. “And frankly, I wish Congress here had done what’s hard.”
DEPORTING TERROR SUSPECTS: A House Republican lawmaker proposed legislation Tuesday that would force the U.S. to deport all terrorist suspects living in the U.S., Pete Kasperowicz writes. The Terrorist Deportation Act, from Rep. Jeff Duncan, would revoke the visas of all non-citizens in the U.S. who are on the Terrorist Screening Database, and would prohibit people on that list from entering the country. Duncan said his bill is needed because there are already people in the U.S. who are likely to be involved in terrorist activity who have not been removed.
Likewise, another bill proposed yesterday would require the State Department to certify the Palestinian Authority has ended its policy of paying families of terrorists, Rudy Takala writes. “This bill stands for a simple principle: U.S. taxpayer dollars should never be used to fund terror against our own citizens or our ally Israel,” Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton said in a statement. “The American people and the Israelis believe in helping the Palestinians build a better and more prosperous society. But that better society will never be possible if Palestinian leaders continue to funnel cash to terrorists and their families.
TRUMP’s PLAUDITS FOR POLAND: Donald Trump may have a problem with some NATO nations that are not paying their fair share, but not Poland. Speaking to Polish-American leaders in Chicago yesterday, Trump was full of praise for Poland, which meets the NATO requirement that it spend 2 percent of its gross domestic product on defense. “If all made the same contributions as Poland, all our allies would be more secure,” Trump said. “We want NATO to be strong, which means we want more nations to follow the example of Poland.”
MORE DEATH FROM THE SKIES: The U.S. continues to kill terrorists in low-profile drone attacks around the world. Yesterday, the Pentagon revealed two strikes in Somalia have killed 13 members of the al-Qaeda linked al-Shabab in a defensive strike to protect U.S. special operations forces who are on a counterterrorism mission with Somali troops. And U.S. Central Command announced the U.S. military struck two al-Qaida targets in central Yemen in the past week, killing four al-Qaida operatives.
BEHIND SCHEDULE: The Navy said last year that it would conduct two freedom-of-navigation operations per quarter in the South China Sea near China’s man-made islands, but has only conducted three in about a year, Jeff Smith, the director of Asian Security Programs at the American Foreign Policy Council, said. The last one was in May. “It’s been 140 days since we launched our last operation, so we are well behind schedule,” Smith said Wednesday at an event hosted by the Center for the National Interest.
ANOTHER ALEPPO MOMENT: It was hard not to feel bad for Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson who couldn’t handle a softball question from MSNBC “Hardball” host Chris Matthews last night. Asked, “Who is your favorite foreign leader?” Johnson could not come up with one. What followed was an embarrassingly long exchange as Matthews tried to coax the name of just one single foreign leader that Johnson respected and looked up to. “Anybody,” he pleaded. “I guess I`m having an Aleppo moment,” Johnson said lamely, before coming up with, but not specifically naming, former Mexican President Vicente Fox.
In that town hall event Johnson also predicted Hillary Clinton would launch nuclear weapons if put to the test as commander in chief during a national emergency. “I think she is going to press the button,” said Johnson, who did nab the endorsement of the Detroit News.
THE RUNDOWN
Fox News: Obama expected to extend airstrikes against ISIS in Libya another month
Defense News: White House Approves Jet Sales to Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait: Corker
Defense One: U.S. Army Racing to Catch Up to Russia On Battle Drones
UPI: BAE Systems upgrading more naval guns
Military.com: Army to Field Handheld Device Simplifying Precision Attack
UPI: Boeing rolls out first P-8A Poseidon for Australia
USNI News: U.S. Defense Researchers Concerned Over Age of Facilities, Personnel Retention
Air Force Times: First woman to attempt TACP training left after injury
Military.com: Reports: US Army Accidentally Tweets ‘Trump Lies’
CNN: Aleppo teeters but no sign of US action
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Airstrike Kills at Least 15 Afghan Civilians, Residents Say
Marine Corps Times: Squad leaders central to Marine Corps’ battle plan against high-tech foes
USNI News: Philippine President Duterte: ‘Serving Notice Now’ to Cancel Future Military Exercises with U.S.
Calendar
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 29
9:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Former NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen speaks about America’s role in the world. atlanticcouncil.org
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Antony Blinken, the deputy secretary of state, testifies on the regional impacts of the crisis in Syria. Foreign.senate.gov
11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Air Force Col. John Dorrian, spokesman, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve briefs the media. Live streamed at www.defense.gov
3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Analysts will talk about redefining the U.S. agenda for nuclear disarmament. csis.org
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 30
Noon. Suite 700, 1 Dupont Circle, NW. The Aspen Institute hosts a book talk with author Rosa Brooks regarding How Everything Became War and the Military Became Everything: Tales from the Pentagon. aspeninstitute.org
MONDAY | OCTOBER 3
7:30 a.m. Walter E. Washington Convention Center. The first day of the Association of the United States Army includes remarks from the sergeant major of the Army and Army Secretary Eric Fanning. ausameetings.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson speaks about maintaining maritime superiority. csis.org
10:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Retired Gen. David Petraeus and former ambassadors talk about the future of Afghanistan. brookings.edu
Noon. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Cato Institute hosts an event about if immigrants and refugees impact America’s national security. cato.org
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 4
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Think tank experts talk about arms control and the U.S. relationship with Russia. brookings.edu
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 6
8:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. European officials and think tank experts talk about alliances in Europe post-Brexit. atlanticcouncil.org
