Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump could claim all 38 of Maryland’s delegates if he carries as much support in the state’s April 26 primary as his latest poll numbers suggest he has.
According to a new Monmouth University survey of Maryland Republicans, the billionaire leads his opponents by double digits in the Old Line State. Forty-seven percent of likely Republican primary voters support Trump compared to 27 percent who support Ohio Gov. John Kasich and 19 percent who support Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
Maryland is divided into eight congressional districts and allocates its Republican delegates on a winner-take-all basis by district, with 10 at-large delegates also up for grabs.
The Monmouth survey released Wednesday shows Trump leading his opponents in every congressional district, although the margin between him and Kasich fluctuates between 10 and 30 percentage points.
In Maryland’s 1st and 5th Congressional Districts, which are located in the Eastern part of the state near the Chesapeake Bay, Trump leads Kasich 54 to 24 percent. In the 6th and 8th Districts, he leads the Ohio governor by 19 percentage points. Trump still leads his Republican rivals, but by a slimmer margin in the four congressional districts located closest to Baltimore and Washington, D.C.
“If Trump’s current level of support translates to each of Maryland’s eight congressional districts, he may be able to run the table in the all-important delegate contest,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.
Trump leads Cruz among very conservative voters (58 to 27 percent), while moderate Republicans are evenly split over supporting him or Kasich. Among college graduates, Kasich carries a 5-point edge over Trump. But the billionaire leads his opponents among non-college educated voters, men and women.
“Even though Kasich is competitive among certain demographic groups, Trump’s overwhelming support among men without a college education accounts for his substantial lead statewide,” Murray noted.
Cruz fares the worst in Maryland. The Texas senator not only trails Trump and Kasich in every congressional district, he earns the least amount of support among Republicans in the state when they are asked to consider him as the GOP nominee.
While 80 percent of Maryland Republicans said they would support Kasich in the general election and 73 percent would support Trump, only 67 percent indicated they would vote for Cruz in November.
The Monmouth University survey of 301 likely voters in Maryland’s Republican primary was conducted between April 10-12. Results contain a margin of error plus or minus 5.7 percent.
