Striking a deal with hard-line conservatives may have won Kevin McCarthy the House speakership, but some strategists are warning that the concessions he made may tank the Republican Party’s shot in the 2024 elections by alienating moderate and suburban voters.
McCarthy became House speaker in the early morning hours of Jan. 7 after falling short on 14 ballots in a row due to a group of hard-right holdouts who forced the California Republican to make massive concessions, which included limiting his own power, before finally relenting.
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McCarthy agreed to elevate members of the Freedom Caucus to powerful posts, including the influential House Rules Committee, the panel that sets the floor agenda. The committee also has the ability to rewrite bills after they have been voted on by other committees and can decide which amendments will be allowed on legislation that comes up for votes on the House floor.
He also signed off on changes that would make it easier for lawmakers to oust him as well as promises to pair a debt ceiling increase to cuts in discretionary spending, teeing up high-stakes showdowns with the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House.
On Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress that the United States will hit its debt limit on Jan. 19 and that she will have to resort to “extraordinary measures” to continue to pay the country’s bills if lawmakers do not raise it.
“Failure to meet the government’s obligations would cause irreparable harm to the U.S. economy, the livelihoods of all Americans, and global financial stability,” she wrote.
Her comments mark the first official warnings that Republicans refusing to lift the debt ceiling could lead to a government shutdown and cripple the economy.
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“If the Freedom Caucus gets its way and the government shuts down, it will be a disaster for McCarthy’s speakership,” Democratic consultant Brad Bannon told the Washington Examiner.
Bannon believes the concessions McCarthy made will come back to haunt Republicans at the polls and allow President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party to shift the blame on economic issues. He also believes McCarthy is damaging the GOP beyond repair by catering to a few extremists.
Democrats were able to beat back the red wave Republicans had forecast for the 2022 midterm elections by winning over centrists, independents, and suburban voters who had grown tired of the antics and polarizing positions some conservatives took.
“Democrats were able to reverse the tide … and that was before GOP control of the House put the Freedom Caucus in the driver’s seat,” Bannon said. “Last week was a zoo, and it paves the path to Joe Biden’s reelection. Biden is going to run on being the only adult in the room while the kids in the caucus play.”
“If McCarthy is going to have a successful speakership, he is going to have to control the Matt Gaetz [R-FL] and the Lauren Boebert’s [R-CO] of the world,” he added. “They were everywhere last week, and that’s a real danger for the GOP because it was extremism on issues like abortion that kept Republicans from the red tide.”
Others disagree.
“What McCarthy did was cut deals to open up the House to more debate and greater transparency,” Republican strategist John Feehery told the Washington Examiner. “I don’t see a political downside to more democratic debate. I think that is good for the House and good for the American people.”
Scott Jennings, a longtime Republican operative associated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), said he doesn’t think independent voters in 2024 will be too focused on what happened in January 2023.
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“What they will want to know is whether the Republican Party was responsive to their concerns — inflation, border, crime, for instance — and has the party conducted itself in a way that engenders confidence that it can be entrusted with governing responsibility,” he told the Washington Examiner. “The only ‘deals’ voters care about are the ones that impact their lives, positively or negatively. So, I am optimistic that Speaker McCarthy will put forward legislation and an agenda that is responsive to the country’s concerns and shows that Republicans are responsible actors.”
