The political landscape of Europe is changing.
For the first time since 2005, Germany will have a chancellor not named Angela Merkel. Last Sunday, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowly defeated Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Both parties are now attempting to negotiate coalitions that put them at the head of a new government. What does this mean for the United States?
Both the SPD and CDU have advocated for Germany to do more to provide for Europe’s defense. The U.S. should actively encourage this policy. But not just in Germany, across the continent. America must shift the burden of Europe’s defense from our taxpayers and soldiers to where it rightfully belongs: with Europeans themselves.
The idea that Europe must do more for its own security is not new. American leaders have called on European allies to step up defense spending for decades. What has drastically changed is the greater geopolitical landscape. For the U.S., Europe is simply not as important as it once was. Two important reasons underline why.
First, the Cold War is over. Russia, the primary conventional threat to European security, is a shadow of the former Soviet Union. Russia’s military expenditure of $65.1 billion is far exceeded by NATO-Europe’s $281.4 billion. Europe’s economy recovered long ago from the calamity of the Second World War. Today, NATO-Europe boasts a collective GDP of $25.4 trillion compared to Russia’s $4.3 trillion. Europe has the wherewithal to defend itself, but a lack of political will on both sides of the Atlantic has ensured the continuation of the status quo.
Second, the global redistribution of power from Europe to Asia is the most significant geopolitical development of the 21st century. China’s rise over the past 30 years has seen it become a direct competitor to the U.S. Much as the Soviet Union’s capability to dominate Europe during the Cold War required a robust U.S. defense of the continent, China’s ascendancy calls for a similar U.S. defensive posture in the Indo-Pacific. President Joe Biden’s recent announcement of a new trilateral security pact with Australia and Britain (AUKUS) is just the most recent example of this shift.
The diplomatic fallout between the U.S. and France following the AUKUS announcement and Australia’s decision to cancel a $66 billion deal to purchase French submarines is unfortunate. However, there is a silver lining.
French President Emmanuel Macron has used the situation to advocate for greater European strategic autonomy. Macron recently stated that “Europeans must come out of their naivety” and “take our part in our own protection.” This view is increasingly being voiced across European capitals. It should be fully supported by Washington.
Still, talk is cheap in international politics.
To ensure rhetoric turns into action, the U.S. should gradually draw down its military presence in Europe. With an estimated 70,000-80,000 troops stationed on the continent, the U.S. could save many tens of billions of dollars per year by bringing the troops home. We could also divert strategic resources to the Indo-Pacific.
As the U.S. refocuses on the long-term strategic threat posed by China, it is imperative that our wealthy, capable European allies step up in their own defense.
Sascha Glaeser is a research associate at Defense Priorities. He focuses on U.S. grand strategy, international security, and trans-Atlantic relations. He holds a Master of International Public Affairs and a BA in international studies from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
