In office for 400 days, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is an anemic 40%. His handling of the situation in Ukraine could make or break not only his poll standing but, more importantly, the future of his presidency.
A good way to put Biden’s numbers in context is to compare his job approval rating to the popular vote percentage he received in the last election. His current rating is 11 points below the 51% of the vote he captured in 2020. That falloff is bigger than other recent presidents have endured at this stage of their respective tenures.
Going all the way back to Dwight Eisenhower, the first time there were enough polls to compare, only Donald Trump’s job approval rating (41%) comes close to Biden’s at this point in his presidency.
Two other presidents, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, each rated 47%. The rest rated higher on their 400th day: Jimmy Carter (50%), Bill Clinton (53%), Richard Nixon (56%), Eisenhower (67%), George H.W. Bush (73%), and John F. Kennedy (78%). The best rating was that of George W. Bush; his 81% reflected national unity following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
What does this comparison mean for Biden? Does it predict anything?
All three past presidents with job ratings below 50% at the 400-day milestone — Reagan, Obama, and Trump — suffered significant losses in the next midterm elections, when the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate were on the block.
In 2018, Trump’s party lost a net of 41 seats in the House, forfeiting control of the chamber to Democrats. Obama’s party took what he called a “shellacking” in 2010, losing five Senate seats and 63 House seats, handing Republicans their biggest House majority in 60 years. Reagan’s GOP started off with a House minority and then lost an additional 27 seats in 1982.
Presidents with higher ratings have seen their parties fare better, but some of them, too, have had midterm election losses. In 2002, George W. Bush picked up two Senate seats and eight House seats, but his father lost one Senate seat and seven House seats in 1990. John F. Kennedy picked up four Senate seats and lost four House seats. Nixon picked up two Senate seats and lost 12 House seats. Eisenhower lost two Senate seats and 18 House seats.
It’s difficult for presidents to gain seats for their party in midterm elections. Robust popularity doesn’t guarantee gains in Congress, but weak ratings usually mean losses, sometimes big ones.
Presidents can respond to these losses. Clinton, for example, recovered from his 1994 midterm election debacle by triangulating against both Right and Left and reducing his involvement in controversial issues. He went on to be reelected. If Democrats lose Congress in November, will Biden follow the Clinton model, moving to the center and sidestepping risky initiatives? Or will he stick with a progressive agenda and attack Republicans for opposing it?
Democrats hope Biden’s ratings go up by the elections. They might, but history tells us that most recent presidents’ job ratings tend to worsen, not improve, by the midterm elections. That’s why Biden’s handling of Ukraine is so important to the future of his presidency.
Note: Job approval ratings used for Biden, Trump, and Obama are based on polling averages. Other presidents’ ratings are based on individual Gallup polls. Presidents included were those elected to office and not those who became president because of a predecessor’s death or resignation.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst and publisher of LunchtimePolitics.com, a national newsletter on polls.
