In office for 400 days, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is an anemic 40%. His handling of the situation in Ukraine could make or break not only his poll standing but, more importantly, the future of his presidency.

A good way to put Biden’s numbers in context is to compare his job approval rating to the popular vote percentage he received in the last election. His current rating is 11 points below the 51% of the vote he captured in 2020. That falloff is bigger than other recent presidents have endured at this stage of their respective tenures.