On Tuesday night, when it became clear that Rand Paul had won the Republican nomination for the Senate, Democratic National Chairman was quick to declare that Democrats would attack him as an extremist. It looks like that may be an uphill climb. Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that Paul, who beat establishment-supported Trey Grayson by a 59%-34% margin, has a huge 59%-34% lead over apparent Democratic nominee Jack Conway, who beat primary rival Daniel Mongiardo by only a 44%-43% margin. Mongiardo, who has dropped his talk of a recanvass, trailed by only 3,542 votes out of 520,412 votes cast.
This is a huge contrast with pre-primary polling. Just before the primary Daily Kos and Public Polling Polling polls, conducted by Democratic firms, showed a Paul-Conway race within the margin of error, with both candidates hovering around 40%. Rasmussen, who employs a tight likely voter screen, showed Paul with larger leads, but nothing like the 25% lead in this poll.
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Possible explanation: Paul’s association with the tea party movement, to which he gave credit on election night, and his endorsement by Sarah Palin look like political assets in a state which the McCain-Palin ticket carried by a 57%-41% margin.
