One of the most enduring curses in American politics dictates that the success of a two-term president inevitably leads to losses at the federal and state level.
With less than two weeks before election day, President Obama is working to avoid that fate by endorsing 150 down-ballot candidates, according to the New York Times. But if this serves as a dress rehearsal for Obama’s future retirement plans, the outgoing executive might have wanted to reconsider.
After leaving office, the White House has indicated he plans to begin work with the newly formed National Democratic Redistricting Committee, a group designed to challenge Republicans for political supremacy at the state level.
But any strategy based on fleeting popularity figures is misguided. While Obama is doing his best to put his 52 percent approval rating to work currently, that sudden wave of popularity won’t be stable long term. His approval ratings have fluctuated widely and frequently.
Obama reached his crescendo shortly after inauguration, achieving a 67 percent approval rating, later crashing as low as 38 percent, and finally rebounding to their current level. There’s a chance they could go lower if an economic slowdown or crash occurred under a President Clinton.
Those shifting approval ratings make the 43rd president an unsteady figurehead for a Democrat revival at the state level. He could even be a liability because opposition to Obama has served as a generic and successful Republican platform so far.
While a candidate, he promised fundamental change. The voters got only a taste of this before deciding he couldn’t be trusted with a free hand. What he ended up with was GOP majorities at all levels of government except the White House itself. Since he was inaugurated, Democrats have lost, on net, more than 900 state legislative seats, 69 House seats, 13 Senate seats, and 11 governorships. And it happened in spite of his sportsmanlike willingness to campaign for Democratic candidates at the state and federal levels nearly every year he was in office.
If Obama delivers down-ballot wins after a top-down effort, it will go against his track record and the broader history. Even so, with a remarkably unpopular presidential candidate at the top of the Republican ticket, there’s widespread fear and a real possibility that GOP voters won’t turn out. This could help Democrats make gains in states like Colorado and Nevada, where Obama is focusing his current efforts.
But whatever happens in 2016, GOP failures don’t automatically translate to DNC success stories. By the 2018 midterm elections, a once symbiotic relationship between Obama and Clinton could turn toxic. He will need her to protect his legacy while she will be at risk of owning any of his failures. If Clinton’s presidency doesn’t gain traction, Republicans can easily characterize her administration as a continuation of failed policies.
At that point, there will be little Obama could do to help up or down on the ballot.
Philip Wegmann is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
