Between 1.4 million to 4 million people could lose their healthcare benefits if all states implemented Medicaid work requirements, according to a Thursday estimate from the research firm Kaiser Family Foundation.
The estimate comes as more states are aiming to install work rules for certain Medicaid beneficiaries. The analysis looked at several scenarios if all states installed work requirements and found that most people who would lose coverage would do so because they wouldn’t fill out the paperwork.
In January, the Trump administration allowed for states to apply for waivers to impose work requirements for able-bodied Medicaid beneficiaries.
Kaiser estimates that about 23 million people enrolled in Medicaid could be affected by the work rules because they are not elderly or disabled. Most of those people already have jobs, Kaiser said.
Overall, 73.8 million were on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program as of April, according to the latest data from the Trump administration.
Affected beneficiaries would have to work for 20 hours a week or perform job training, take classes, or volunteer.
Kaiser looked at how work requirements would affect three groups: people already working, people likely exempt, and those subjected to new work rules.
“In all scenarios, most people losing coverage are disenrolled due to lack of reporting rather than not complying with the work requirement,” Kaiser said.
Kaiser added that people who are exempt from work rules could still have to document their exemption status and create new paperwork or reporting obligations for them. Adults who are already working likely will have to report and document their hours.
“There is a risk of eligible people losing coverage due to their inability to navigate these processes, miscommunication, or other breakdowns in the administrative process,” Kaiser said.
Kentucky, Indiana, Arkansas, and New Hampshire have received federal approval to impose work requirements. However, Kentucky’s work rules are being challenged in federal court.
Several other states are seeking similar requests.
