Don’t read too much into the North Korean gunfire on Sunday against South Korean forces at the border of the Demilitarized Zone.
The North Korean shots hit a South Korean guard tower and precipitated a mild South Korean return of fire. But no one on either side is believed to have been wounded.
Still, we can say with confidence that the incident reflects one of two things. Either that Kim Jong Un is simply trying to keep his neighbor and the United States off-balance or that this was a simple accident.
The accident argument earns weight with comments by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday. Speaking to ABC News, Pompeo noted, “We can confirm at least the initial reports are that you’ve described are just about right. A handful of shots that came across from the North. We think those were accidental.”
While it might seem odd that the North Koreans would accidentally hit a guard post, it’s possible that a sentry was simply aiming his weapon at the South Koreans, and twitch-fired by accident or something along those lines. Pompeo’s confidence that the shots were accidental might be based on South Korean or American intercepts of North Korean army communications between the soldier/s who fired the shots and others asking what was going on.
Of course, it’s also possible that this was a deliberate act.
That would fit with Kim’s strategic interest in keeping his adversaries off-balance. Returning from his recent disappearing act, Kim wants to show the world that he is in charge, not weakened, and remains willing to escalate. In the context of recent North Korean rhetoric targeting Pompeo, this guard post incident may also indicate further escalations in the near term future.
The strategic context here matters. Kim is in much need of sanctions relief. But with the U.S. insisting that relief won’t come until Pyongyang takes verifiable steps toward nuclear and ballistic missile disarmament, Kim has increasing temptation to roll the dice with escalation. He will hope that any escalation might earn President Trump’s appeasement.
Regardless, Sunday’s limited exchange of gunfire should not be cause for alarm. At best, it was a mistake. At worse, it was Kim reminding us that he’s back and means business.
