BACK FROM THE BRINK: After a week of escalating rhetoric from President Trump, every member of his national security team appears laser-focused on diplomacy, not military action to achieve the goal of a denuclearized North Korea. A “peaceful pressure campaign” is how Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson describe current efforts in a joint opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal last night. “The U.S. has no interest in regime change or accelerated reunification of Korea. We do not seek an excuse to garrison U.S. troops north of the Demilitarized Zone. We have no desire to inflict harm on the long-suffering North Korean people, who are distinct from the hostile regime in Pyongyang,” Mattis and Tillerson write.
“While diplomacy is our preferred means of changing North Korea’s course of action, it is backed by military options,” the op-ed goes on. “The U.S. is willing to negotiate with Pyongyang. But given the long record of North Korea’s dishonesty in negotiations and repeated violations of international agreements, it is incumbent upon the regime to signal its desire to negotiate in good faith.”
Both Mattis and Tillerson are scheduled to meet with their Japanese counterparts Wednesday in Washington.
DUNFORD’S SEOUL MISSION: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joe Dunford is in Seoul, South Korea, on an Asia trip that will also include stops in Japan and China. Dunford has described his objective as reassuring allies and improving military-to-military relations during a time of rising tensions. The U.S. already has strong ties with South Korea and Japan, but Dunford told reporters traveling with him that he hopes to build on his relationship with Chinese Gen. Fang Fenghui, whom he first spoke to 16 months ago.
“No one is more reluctant to go to war than those of us who represent the men and women who actually have to pay that sacrifice,” Dunford said on the plane ride to Seoul. But he said as senior adviser to the president, it is his job to provide the commander in chief with options for the use of force.
“As a military leader I have to make sure that the president does have viable military options in the event that the diplomatic and economic pressurization campaign fails,” Dunford said. “But even as we develop those options, we are mindful of the consequences of those options, and that gives us a greater sense of urgency to make sure we are doing everything we absolutely can to support Secretary Tillerson’s path.”
On his way to the region, Dunford stopped in Hawaii, headquarters of U.S. Pacific Command, to consult with Adm. Harry Harris.
WAR IS NOT IMMINENT: On CBS yesterday, CIA Director Mike Pompeo was asked what North Korean action would trigger a U.S. military response. “I can’t answer that,” he said. “But suffice it to say, I’m familiar with the facts. We’re not at an imminent risk of that taking place today. An attack from North Korea is not something that is imminent.” On Fox New Sunday, Pompeo said contrary to popular belief, the U.S. has pretty good intelligence about what goes on in Pyongyang. “Make no mistake, the intelligence community does excellent work on understanding what’s going on on the North Korean side,” he said. “I’m quite confident that he will continue to try to develop his missile program. So, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was another test.” But Pompeo doesn’t foresee the regime of Kim Jong Un provoking an all-out war. “I’ve heard folks talking about that, we being on the cusp of a nuclear war. I’ve seen no intelligence that would indicate that we’re in that place today.”
NOT A RED LINE: On NBC, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Trump’s national security adviser, insisted Trump’s pointed warnings to Kim to stop threatening and disrespecting the United States or face unspecified military options did not amount to drawing a red line. “The president doesn’t draw red lines,” McMaster said. “What he does is he asks us to make sure that we have viable options for him, options that combine diplomatic, economic and military capabilities. And so that’s what we have done.”
Former Joint Chiefs chairman, retired Adm. Mike Mullen, expressed concern that with talk of military solutions that are “locked and loaded,” the president is boxing himself in. “I think it eliminates maneuver space for him, because it looks like brinkmanship to me, and it looks like clearly he is at least verbally focused very specifically on the military options with the rhetoric that’s out there,” Mullen said on NBC. “If this results in a military strike, the unintended consequences of that, the possibility that there are disproportional responses, miscalculations, it just — it can really get out of control fast.”
BUT TRUMP IS SANGUINE: “Hopefully it’ll all work out. OK. Nobody loves a peaceful solution better than President Trump. That I can tell you. Hopefully it’ll all work out,” Trump said Friday, noting that since his tough talk, he’s heard nothing directly from the mouth of Kim. “He hasn’t been saying much for the last three days.”
HOT RHETORIC MEETS COLD REALITY: No one is talking about what the U.S. military options are, should North Korea directly threaten the U.S. or its allies. Michael Morell, former acting director of the CIA, insisted the idea the U.S. has any viable military option is a myth. “We don’t know where these weapons are. We don’t know where all the missiles are. We don’t have enough firepower to take out all the artillery along the DMZ. So there is not a military option here which solves this problem.”
“We have always had military options,” Mullen countered. “And they are very complex. But they can be executed. It almost seems as if we’re leading with those, which … unsettled an awful lot of people.”
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT? Meanwhile, many outside experts are questioning how advanced North Korea’s missile and nuclear warhead programs actually are. One group of skeptics published their findings Friday in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, suggesting recent tests of North Korea’s ICBM are a sham. “The flight tests on July 4 and 28 were a carefully choreographed deception by North Korea to create a false impression that the Hwasong-14 is a near-ICBM that poses a nuclear threat to the continental US,” wrote the scientists, including Ted Postol, the MIT physicist who made a name for himself after the 1991 Persian Gulf War debunking inflated claims of the effectiveness of the Patriot missile in shooting down Iraq’s Scuds. The Associated Press surveyed experts who believe the North has a lot more work to do before it can threaten the U.S. with a nuclear-tipped missile. “In principle, Kim Jong Un could hit the United States with a nuclear weapon,” said Michael Elleman, an expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “In practice, I think they are probably a half-year to a full year away from having something that will work more often than it would fail.”
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY: Trump takes a break from his 17-day working vacation in New Jersey to return to Washington today to sign an executive order authorizing an investigation into China’s alleged theft of American technology and intellectual property. The trade investigation comes as Trump continues to seek China’s help with North Korea, and follows a phone call last week with Chinese President Xi Jinping, in which Trump thanked Beijing for backing the recent U.N. vote to impose tougher sanctions on North Korea.
Trump tweeted this morning: “Heading to Washington this morning. Much work to do. Focus on trade and military. #MAGA”
On NBC, McMaster said the trade issue is separate from North Korea talks. “I think China recognizes that we have to compete. America has to engage with the world,” McMaster said. “And the operative word is not punish, the operative word is to compete effectively, to demand fair and reciprocal trade and economic relationships with not just China, but with all countries.”
CALLING OUT DOMESTIC TERRORISM: McMaster also said this weekend an attack in Charlottesville, Va., in which an alleged white supremacist drove his car down a street crowded with counter protesters, meets the definition of domestic terrorism but legally is now a criminal act. “I think any time you make an attack against people to incite fear it is terrorism,” he said on ABC’s “This Week.” He added the attack appears to meet that definition but there will be a proper investigation into the suspect’s motivation. “What you see here is someone who is a criminal, who is committing a criminal act against fellow Americans.”
The attack, which echoed other vehicle attacks in Britain, France, Germany and Sweden, killed 32-year-old Heather Heyer, a paralegal and left dozens injured, some critically. The driver of the car, 20-year-old James Alex Fields, has been charged with second degree murder.
2 KILLED IN IRAQ: Two American service members were killed and five others wounded while conducting combat operations in northern Iraq on Sunday, but official said the deaths did not seem to be the result of contact with enemy forces, suggesting the possibility of friendly fire. The incident is under investigation and Operation Inherent Resolve officials provided no further information..
“There are no words to describe the respect I have for [the families of the service members] and sorrow I have for your loss. I hope there is some small solace in knowing their loss has meaning for our country and all the nations of the coalition as the fallen service members were fighting to defeat a truly evil enemy and to protect our homelands,” said Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander of Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve.
ONE-DAY STAND DOWN FOR MARINE AIRCRAFT: Following two deadly crashes this summer, Gen. Robert Neller, the commandant of the Marine Corps, ordered all aircraft units to halt flights for 24 hours and have a refresher course on safe operations. Individual commanders can choose when, but the training must be completed over the next two weeks across the service. Marines are to “review selected incidents which occurred enterprise-wide and study historical examples of completed investigations in order to bring awareness and best practices to the fleet,” the service said. Three Marines were killed this month when a tilt-rotor MV-22 Osprey aircraft went into the ocean off the coast of Australia during a training mission. Separately, 15 Marines and a Navy corpsman were killed July 10 when a Marine KC-130 refueling tanker smashed into a field in Mississippi.
The Marine Corps said such pauses are not unusual, but Rep. Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said Friday it proves the military is dangerously degraded. “The Marine Corps decision to temporarily ground all aircraft is further, indisputable evidence that America’s military is in a readiness crisis, and that the crisis is costing lives,” Thornberry said. He is a top advocate on Capitol Hill for a big hike in defense spending this year and has criticized Trump’s $603 billion proposed 2018 budget as too meager. The Armed Services Committee wrote a $696 billion defense bill that passed the House last month. “Washington has asked our military to do too much with too little for too long,” he said.
Thornberry’s counterpart, Senate Armed Services Chairman John McCain, issued a similar statement. “The temporary grounding of all Marine Corps aircraft is the latest example of the readiness crisis that threatens to cripple the U.S. military’s advantage over our adversaries,” McCain said, calling for swift passage of the National Defense Authorization Act, and a budget deal.
NEW SECNAV TALKS TRANSGENDER: Navy Secretary Richard V. Spencer indicated last week he disagrees with Trump over the president’s new policy banning transgender individuals from serving in the military, saying “any patriot” who wants and qualifies to serve should be able to. But don’t expect him to break ranks with his commander in chief. “We will process and take direction on a policy that will be developed by the secretary [with] direction from the president, and march out smartly,” Spencer told reporters during a visit to Naval Station Norfolk, according to the Daily Press. “As I said before, on a fundamental basis, any patriot that wants to serve and meets all the requirements should be able to serve in our military.”
VENEZUELA INTERVENTION? In another surprise threat, Trump said Friday he is not ruling out military action against the government in Venezuela for its recent moves to weaken the country’s democratic institutions. “We have many options for Venezuela,” Trump told reporters in Bedminster, N.J., as Tillerson, McMaster and U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley stood by the president’s side.
“I’m not going to rule out a military option. We have many options for Venezuela. This is our neighbor. This is — you know, we’re all over the world. And we have troops all over the world in places that are very, very far away. Venezuela is not very far away. And the people are suffering. And they’re dying. We have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option if necessary.”
While not backing off the president’s comments, Vice President Mike Pence, who is in Colombia, stressed the U.S. would much prefer what he called a “peaceable” solution, but said it would not stand by while “a neighbor collapses in dictatorship.” Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, who was standing next to Pence, said since friends have to tell friends the truth, “military intervention should not even be considered.”
“President Trump is a leader who says what he means and means what he says,” Pence said. “But the president sent me here to continue to marshal the unprecedented support of countries across Latin America to achieve by peaceable means the restoration of democracy in Venezuela, and we believe it is achievable by those means,” according to the AP.
The Pentagon so far says this is just talk. “The Pentagon has not received any orders with regards to Venezuela,” said Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon Friday evening.
ISIS-K LEADER KILLED: The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan says a U.S airstrike killed an Islamic State-Khorasan “emir,” Abdul Rahman, Aug. 10 along with three additional senior ISIS-K members in Kunar Province. ISIS-K is the Afghanistan offshoot of ISIS. Rahman, in addition to being a provincial emir, was a primary candidate to become the ISIS-K emir following the death of Abu Sayed in July 2017.
“The death of Abdul Rahman deals yet another blow to the senior leadership of ISIS-K,” said Gen. John Nicholson, who commands U.S. Forces-Afghanistan. “He found out just like those before him that there are no safe havens in Afghanistan. We will hunt them down until they are no longer a threat to the Afghan people and the region.”
RUSSIAN THREATS: U.S. diplomats and embassy staff risk punishment if they “meddl[e]” in upcoming Russian elections, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned. “I am unaware of the U.S. Embassy’s plans, but there were many incidents when American diplomats were involved in illegal activities,” Lavrov said Friday at a youth forum. “Our relevant services should take appropriate measures.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his team have accused the U.S. for years of interfering in their elections, most notably blaming then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of stoking protests against election fraud in 2011. Lavrov complained in particular the State Department had tried to “conduct opinion polls” in the run-up to past Russian elections. “They probably do not consider this to be meddling, because they are allowed to do anything, and that’s in their blood,” Lavrov said, per TASS, a state-run media outlet. “However, if this happens, we have our own laws, the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which says explicitly and specifically what diplomats can do and what they cannot do. … We will be guided by it and by our laws.”
THE RUNDOWN
CNN: Venezuelan President’s son threatens to seize White House with rifles
New York Times: North Korea’s Missile Success Is Linked to Ukrainian Plant, Investigators Say
Wall Street Journal: Top U.S. general readies military plan for North Korea, but pushes for diplomacy
AP: Iran lawmakers raise missile, Guard spending to challenge U.S.
USA Today: Asians wonder who is more dangerous: President Trump or North Korean leader Kim Jong Un?
Fox News: China’s military is key to helping resolve North Korea tension, Joint Chiefs chairman says
Reuters: Trump’s threat of Venezuela military action could bolster Maduro
Politico: Clapper: Denuclearized North Korea isn’t ‘in the cards’
New York Times: Trump to Guam governor: North Korea threats will boost tourism ‘tenfold’
Daily Beast: He negotiated nukes with North Korea and he’s got advice for Donald Trump
Calendar
TUESDAY | AUG. 15
1 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. CatoConnects: A peek into North Korea. cato.org
WEDNESDAY | AUG. 16
8 a.m. 1201 M St. SE. NDIA Systems Engineering Division meeting. ndia.org
8:30 a.m. 2121 Crystal Dr. Trusted micro electronics workshop. ndia.org
