It’s been difficult to get much polling data on some of Virginia’s congressional races (particularly in the 11th district contest between Gerry Connolly and Keith Fimian). But Jim Geraghty notes a recent batch of polls from ccAdvertising that ought to give Virginia Republicans some reasons for cheer.
Keith Fimian, who lost to Gerry Connolly by 12 points in their 2009 match-up, now leads the incumbent Democrat by 5 points. Republican state Senator Robert Hurt leads incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello by 16 points in the 5th and Scott Rigell, challenging Democratic Rep. Glenn in the 2nd district, is up by 14.
The only Republican trailing is House Majority leader Morgan Griffith, who is running against long-time Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher. But even here, Griffith only trails by three points, with around 17 percent of voters “undecided.” For Griffith, this is more than a moral victory. He’s consistently trailed Boucher in fundraising and has the added handicap of not living in the district (he’s just over the line in the 6th district, represented by Republican Bob Goodlatte). That he’s within striking distance in spite of those obstacles says a great deal about the political climate in the 9th and nationwide.
But there’s another story here worth watching and it has to do with a congressman who has only token opposition, a huge warchest and a great deal of ambition: Rep. Eric Cantor.
Cantor helped recruit Griffin and backed Fimian, Rigell and Hurt in their respective GOP primaries. The Fimian endorsement was particularly interesting because his challenger, Fairfax county board member Pat Herrity, enjoyed the strong backing of the local Republican establishment. If Fimian, Hurt, Rigell and Griffin win in November, Mr. Cantor’s hold on Virginia’s congressional delegation becomes strong indeed, and adds to the strong influence he’s building within the General Assembly and the Republican Party of Virginia.
These are just the sort of chits an ambitious politician needs if, say, he really does want to be Speaker sooner rather than later. Or make a statewide run. While Cantor has denied statewide ambitions, it would be foolish to count him out, particularly if the opportunity presents itself…and even more if John Boehner decides to quit smoking.
