Where » Honda Center, Anaheim, Calif.

TV » CBS

Storyline » The Kemba Walker Show is no longer about how long the diminutive guard can carry his team. It’s about contending for a title in enemy territory. The Aztecs will have the Anaheim crowd on their side, but they’re expectations are loftier than those of UConn, which by this point is playing with house money.

Key matchup » Aztecs forward Kawhi Leonard (15.6 ppg, 10.6 rpg) vs. the UConn frontcourt. Leonard has been San Diego State’s best player all season, but he uncharacteristically struggled in a third-round win over Temple. The Huskies have size to spare as well as athletes like Roscoe Smith (6.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg) to chase Leonard all over the floor.

How San Diego State can win » Spread the floor and attack at the offensive end. The Aztecs have the advantage athletically, but they can’t get intimidated going inside. Forward Billy White has been dominant in the last three games, averaging 16.3 points and 12.7 rebounds during that stretch, including 19 offensive boards.

How UConn can win » It’s all about which role player, if any, can step up to play wingman, literally, for Walker. Smooth-shooting freshman Jeremy Lamb has hit six of eight 3-point attempts in two games. The UConn frontcourt scoring was nearly nonexistent vs. Cincinnati, but that’s a sacrifice worth making if the Huskies are able to dominate the glass.

Player to watch » Of course it’s Walker (23.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.5 apg), who will remind the Aztecs of another prolific guard who they faced in the Mountain West, one who is also known better for his first name than his last — and who beat them twice. San Diego State’s challenge is finding a balance between collapsing on Walker and watching him do his thing.

Examiner predicts » San Diego State 67, Connecticut 66

– Craig Stouffer

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 Arizona

When » Thursday, 9:45 p.m.

Where » Honda Center, Anaheim, Calif.

TV » CBS

Storyline » Both teams barely scraped through the third round to set up a rematch of the 2001 NCAA final. The emergence of Arizona sophomore forward Derrick Williams (19.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg) is as compelling as the return of Blue Devils freshman guard Kyrie Irving (16.4 ppg, 4.4 apg) — either could be decisive.

Key matchup » Irving and Nolan Smith (21.0 ppg, 5.2 apg) vs. MoMo Jones (9.5 ppg) and Kyle Fogg (8.1 ppg). Both teams love to shoot the 3, but Fogg and Jones will be tested handling the penetration abilities of Smith, the Devils’ emotional leader, and Irving, who is expected to play significant minutes.

How Duke can win » With timely shooting and plenty of poise. It’s not just Duke’s ability to hit from outside but to hit from wherever there’s an open shot. In a close game, the composure and experience of Smith and Kyle Singler (16.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg) will prove the difference.

How Arizona can win » By playing like they belong. After missing the tournament last year, this is new for everyone but second-year coach Sean Miller, who went to the Elite Eight with Xavier in 2008. The Wildcats are solid at shooting and defending on the perimeter. To advance, the focus must be on the latter first.

Player to watch » No star is on the rise faster than Williams, the Pac-10 player of the year and a Los Angeles native who could take over like Blake Griffin during All-Star weekend. Williams has supplanted Irving in some NBA mock 2011 drafts, and his strength gives him an advantage against Duke’s frontcourt even though he can also step out to hit 3-pointers.

Examiner predicts » Duke 84, Arizona 80

– Craig Stouffer

SOUTHEAST REGION

No. 2 Florida vs. No. 3 BYU

When » Thursday, 7:27 p.m.

Where » New Orleans Arena

TV » TBS

Storyline » This is a replay of their game last year in the round of 64, where Jimmer Fredette (37 points) hit two 3-pointers in the second overtime of a 99-92 BYU win as the Cougars made it to the second round for the first time in 17 years, snapping a streak of seven straight NCAA losses. Will Florida have an answer for Fredette this time?

Key matchup » Kenny Boynton (Florida) vs. Fredette (BYU). Florida coach Billy Donovan says Boynton will start against the national scoring leader, but he will rotate Erving Walker and Scottie Wilbekin on the BYU standout. Boynton must be healthy. He sprained an ankle in Saturday’s win over UCLA and missed practice Monday.

How Florida can win » The Gators will have a major advantage inside with 6-foot-10 Chandler Parsons (11.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg), 6-10 Vernon Macklin (11.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and 6-8 Alex Tyus (8.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg). Florida must make it a game of frontcourt vs. frontcourt, a difficult task in NCAA contests, in which guards often dominate the action.

How BYU can win » Rebound. With Brandon Davies gone for the season, the Cougars have to compensate with tenacity. Much depends on 6-8 Noah Hartsock (8.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg). The Cougars get next to nothing from their bench. Frontcourt reserves 6-10 James Anderson and 6-6 Logan Magnusson combined for two points and one rebound in 31 minutes Saturday against Gonzaga.

Player to watch » Who else but Fredette (28.8 ppg)? The senior was stellar last weekend in Denver, hitting nine of 21 shots from beyond the arc, scoring 66 points and dishing 13 assists in decisive wins over St. John’s and Gonzaga. He must carry the Cougars if they are to get to the Final Four.

Examiner predicts » BYU 79, Florida 77

– Kevin Dunleavy

No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Butler

When » Thursday, 9:57 p.m.

Where » New Orleans Arena

TV » TBS

Storyline » Bo Ryan has taken Wisconsin to the tournament in all 10 of his seasons but has never gone to the Final Four. In the last four years, the Badgers have lost four times to non-BCS conference teams and three times to lower seeds. Butler coach Brad Stevens has had no such problems, going 8-3 in the tournament, including a trip to the finals last year.

Key matchup » These teams are similarly constructed. Both have future NBA guards — Shelvin Mack (Butler) and Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin). And both have overachieving senior big men with long-distance touch — 6-foot-8 Matt Howard (Butler) and 6-10 Jon Leuer (Wisconsin). The key matchup could be inside, where 6-11 Andrew Smith of Butler teams with Howard.

How Wisconsin can win » Wisconsin has a historically low turnover rate of 7.5 a game, by far the best in the nation this year. Butler answers with physical man-to-man defense. The Badgers must remain disciplined. They will not be able to dominate Butler with their usual formula — execution, patience and precision.

How Butler can win » Don’t foul. Wisconsin is the best free throw shooting team in the nation (82.3 percent). The Bulldogs also must call on their experience, which was key in their first two tournament games. Over the last two seasons, none of Butler’s last six victories in the tournament has come by more than seven points.

Player to watch » Howard. Last weekend, the Butler senior scored the game-winning points in wins over Old Dominion and Pittsburgh, both with less than a second to play. Whether taking charges, hitting 3-pointers or scrapping for loose balls, Howard is the Bulldogs’ inspirational leader.

Examiner predicts » Butler 66, Wisconsin 64

– Kevin Dunleavy

[email protected] | kdunleavy@washingtonexaminer.com