“I think he pretty much sealed his fate,” says an Iowa Republican party activist just hours after Rick Perry’s mortifying gaffe at the GOP debate in Michigan. “People were already moving away from him, but that did it.”
No surprise there: the Texas governor has dropped from first to sixth place in the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls in the last several weeks, and a major gaffe can’t help. But as Perry’s approval rating appears poised to sink even further, what is striking after a weeklong visit to Iowa is the incredible opportunity the Texas governor has squandered. Among state Republicans, especially the social conservatives who make up a significant bloc of the GOP, opposition to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is as strong as ever. Perry had the chance to take advantage of those strong anti-Romney feelings, and he failed.
It’s possible that the antipathy for Romney among social conservatives is actually increasing as the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses grow near and conservatives sense — but still hope to stop — a Romney victory. “I’m offended by his arrogance, and his campaign’s arrogance, in treating us like stepchildren,” says Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition.
Statements like that don’t come just from policy disagreements, although Scheffler and his allies have plenty of those with Romney. The intensity of feelings also comes from Romney’s decision to mostly ignore the state. Whenever there’s a big event — the party’s annual dinner, a forum for a key conservative organization, whatever — Iowans can count on Romney not to be there. Instead, he’ll show up at a few campaign events — he made a brief visit to eastern Iowa just last Monday — and he’ll come if there’s a televised debate. Otherwise, Romney is pretty scarce.
“Of all people, Mitt Romney knows that he’s going to have to spend time in Iowa to win Iowa,” says another conservative activist. “And for whatever reason, this time around he has done everything in his power to avoid Iowa.”
The continuing resentment of Romney has created the perfect opportunity for a candidate to sweep anti-Romney voters into one group and possibly win the caucuses. Perry was supposed to be that candidate, but with the caucuses now 53 days away, it appears he has little or no hope.
But the caucuses are still up for grabs. It’s safe to say that a large majority of Iowa voters remain uncommitted or lightly committed. They’re ready for a candidate to unite anti-Romney voters. But in the words of yet another conservative activist, “We’re running out of options.”
So they are. Here is how the conservative activists see the situation. Romney has roughly 25 percent support, and that support is mostly solid. People who have made up their minds for Romney are not going to run to another candidate.
Everyone else’s support, however, is fluid. Herman Cain, currently tied for the lead with Romney, is not on a firm foundation in Iowa. Social conservatives were dismayed by his confused statements on abortion, and they had doubts about whether he has the experience and knowledge for the presidency. As for the sexual harassment allegations against Cain, many believe he is being unfairly accused. But they also worry that there might be something else out there, and if some credible accusation arises, they’ll leave Cain.
If that happens, many will go to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. “A very conservative friend of mine told me yesterday that she’s moving toward Newt,” says one of the conservative activists, “and if she is, there are a lot of others.” The polls bear that out — Gingrich has risen to fourth place in Iowa, behind Cain, Romney, and Ron Paul — but it’s not clear how high Gingrich can go.
There seems to be no possibility Michele Bachmann will rise, and Jon Huntsman never has. But there’s one more player in the Iowa race, and that is Rick Santorum. The former Pennsylvania senator has impressed a lot of Iowans with his dogged campaigning in the state. He has also worked hard to broaden his appeal from the social-conservative base. But he’s still very low in the polls, and his only hope is that a number of influential social conservatives will throw their support to him. That might happen; it’s under discussion right now.
It all shows how incredibly fluid the Iowa race is right now. After Perry’s crash, there remains a huge opportunity for a candidate to harness anti-Romney sentiments. The door is still open — just not to Rick Perry.
Byron York, The Examiner’s chief political correspondent, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears on Tuesday and Friday, and his stories and blogposts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.
