Keeping Assad and Putin guessing, Trump would make Carl von Clausewitz proud

I smiled, because both actions keep Syria and Russia off balance and make the coming retaliation more likely to succeed.

First off, by waiting to strike, the U.S. keeps Syrian air defense forces in a state of very high readiness and forces Assad to continue guessing whether the U.S. knows where his high-value assets have been relocated.

At the tactical level (front line Syrian military units) and strategic level (Assad and his commanders), the U.S. approach here means significant stress and abundant fear. This matters because effective military force and strategy is largely determined by the ability of individuals to operate effectively. But if individuals are fearful and exhausted, their operability will suffer.

Even if marginally, this mitigates the threat posed to the U.S. and French forces who will carry out any strikes.

Waiting patiently with a looming prospect of likely strikes also allows other allies to consider joining military action. The British government, for example, is meeting on Tuesday to consider joining allied strikes and is leaning toward doing so. I believe it likely that an urgent parliamentary vote to authorize strikes will be called for Wednesday or Thursday.

Yet the decision by Trump to cancel his trips to Peru and Colombia this weekend is also distinct in its importance.

That’s because the cancellations followed a White House principals meeting on how to respond to Assad’s attack. This strongly indicates that the allied retaliation against Assad will be significant enough that the White House believes Trump will have to remain in Washington to manage any aftereffects such as Syrian or Russian counter-escalation.

Ultimately, Trump’s approach here serves the strategic principles of surprise and security in pursuit of the looming offensive.

Assad and Putin know something is coming. But they don’t know what that something will be, how it will be happen, or when it will occur.