Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter’s announcement that he is switching from Republican to Democrat follows a poll which showed him trailing former Congressman Pat Toomey in a Republican primary by a 51%-30% margin. In contrast, Specter’s numbers have been pretty positive among Democrats and Independents.
It’s worth noting that that Specter has not committed to voting for cloture on all issues, and specifically said he will not vote for cloture for the labor unions’ card check bill. This might whet the appetite of the unions to run someone against him in the Democratic primary. But in the meantime, once Al Franken is seated (assuming he is), the Democrats will have 60 votes in the Senate. Not all of them are certain for cloture on every issue; others besides Specter have indicated they will not vote to move forward to pass card check. But it puts Democrats in a position of greater strength than they had yesterday.
I think this shows the folly, from the point of view of expanding Republican numbers in Congress, of Pat Toomey’s candidacy. His chances of winning a general election, in my judgment, were far lower than they were in 2004, when he ran against Specter and lost the primary by only a 51%-49% margin. In 2004 Pennsylvania voted for John Kerry by just a 51%-48% margin. In 2008 Pennsylvania voted for Barack Obamaby a 54%-44% margin, despite McCain’s frequent campaigning in the state. In between some 200,000 Pennsylvania voters switched their party registration from Republican to Democratic. This does not seem to have been just an opportunistic move to vote in a particular primary but the sign of a genuine switch in allegiance. And it’s not just a Pennsylvania phenomenon. Republican party identification has sagged significantly since 2004 in most parts of the nation.
Pat Toomey was the head of the Club for Growth when it established its strategy of opposing moderates in Republican primaries. That made a certain sense when Republicans had majorities in Congress. It makes a lot less sense now. They don’t have any obvious targets in the Senate now; the two leading moderate Republicans, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine, are not up for reelection until 2010 and 2012.
Party-switching is something Specter is adept at. He switched from the Democratic to the Republican party to run for District Attorney of Philadelphia County in 1965 and was elected that year and in 1969; he was defeated by Democrat Emmet Fitzpatrick in 1973, and then lost Republican primaries for senator (to John Heinz) in 1976 and governor (to Dick Thornburgh) in 1978, until he was elected to the Senate in 1980.
