The Homeland Security Department’s 2020 threat assessment warns of a host of national security risks to the United States, including foreign countries seeking to influence the upcoming presidential election and meddling with the 2020 census.
The 26-page Homeland Threat Assessment was released Monday evening, detailing numerous foreign and domestic threats. They ranged from white supremacist and anarchist violence to foreign terrorism and espionage, and multiple sections were devoted to laying out the DHS’s perspective on foreign-influence operations, including efforts by Russia, China, and Iran to exploit the coronavirus pandemic, sow discord in the U.S., and spread disinformation about democratic processes. The report comes a few weeks after a DHS whistleblower complaint alleged that top Trump administration officials, including acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf, sought to politicize the intelligence surrounding foreign election interference. Wolf and the DHS have repeatedly and strenuously denied the claims.
“Threats to our election have been another rapidly evolving issue. Nation-states like China, Russia, and Iran will try to use cyber capabilities or foreign influence to compromise or disrupt infrastructure related to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, aggravate social and racial tensions, undermine trust in U.S. authorities, and criticize our elected officials,” Wolf said in the report’s foreword. “Perhaps most alarming is that our adversaries are seeking to sway the preferences and perceptions of U.S. voters using influence operations. Americans need to understand this threat and arm themselves with all information available to avoid falling prey to these tactics. While Russia has been a persistent threat by attempting to harm our democratic and election systems, it is clear China and Iran also pose threats in this space.”
Wolf referenced the August intelligence assessment presented by William Evanina, who leads the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, that warned Russia is “using a range of measures to primarily denigrate” former Vice President Joe Biden, including that “pro-Russia Ukrainian parliamentarian Andriy Derkach is spreading claims about corruption — including through publicizing leaked phone calls — to undermine” Biden. The same statement said China “prefers” that President Trump not win reelection and is “expanding its influence efforts ahead of November 2020” in order to “pressure political figures it views as opposed to China’s interests.” The counterintelligence official also said that Iran “seeks to undermine” Trump’s presidency. In addition, Wolf pointed to Microsoft’s September warning that Russian, Chinese, and Iranian hackers were all seeking to meddle in 2020.
“Some state or non-state actors likely will seek to use cyber means to compromise or disrupt infrastructure used to support the 2020 U.S. Presidential election and the 2020 U.S. Census,” the new DHS report concluded. “Given the national importance of these events, any related cyber activities — or mere claims of compromise — might fuel influence operations aimed at depressing voter turnout or census participation, misinforming about democratic processes, or shaping perceptions about the integrity or outcome of the election or census.”
The DHS report also said that election meddling operations “could occur throughout the 2020 election cycle — through pre-election activities, Election Day, and the post-election period.” And it warned that “unidentified cyber actors have engaged in suspicious communications with the U.S. Census public-facing network over at least the last year, including conducting vulnerability scans and attempting unauthorized access,” specifically noting that “Russian influence actors see divisive issues regarding the 2020 Census, such as the consideration of adding a citizenship question, as an opportunity to target a fundamental democratic process.” The DHS said that Russia might use cyberattacks and social media messaging “to attempt to discourage public participation in the census, to promote a loss of confidence in census results, or to undermine trust in public institutions.”
The census, which is mandated by Article 1, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution, is conducted every 10 years to measure the population and, among other things, determine how many seats in Congress each state receives. The 2020 census is currently mired in a number of federal court battles. Last week, Judge Lucy Koh of the Northern District of California said the Census Bureau could not carry out its schedule that aimed to complete nationwide counting by the end of September and provide the count results to Trump by the end of December. The federal judge ruled that the law stipulates that the bureau continue its counting through the end of October and not give the count results to the president earlier than April 2021. Trump issued a memorandum in July excluding illegal immigrants from the apportionment base following the 2020 census, though a three-judge panel in a Manhattan federal court blocked Trump’s effort in September.
Beyond the census, the DHS report said that foreign adversaries “are using covert and overt influence measures to try to sway U.S. voters’ preferences and perspectives about candidates, political parties, policies, and the electoral process itself” ahead of the 2020 election.
The report concluded Russia “uses online influence operations in its attempt to sway U.S. voter perceptions” and that “although some Russian influence activity appears to be in support of or in opposition to specific political candidates, Moscow’s overarching objective is to undermine the U.S. electoral process and weaken the United States through discord, division, and distraction in hopes America becomes less able to challenge Russia’s strategic objectives.” The report also said that China “likely will continue using overt and covert influence operations to denigrate the U.S. Presidential Administration and its policies and to shape the U.S. domestic information environment in favor of China” and “will further use its traditional ‘soft power’ influence toolkit — overt economic measures and lobbying — to promote U.S. policies more aligned with China’s interests.” The DHS further said Iran “will continue to promote messages supporting its foreign policy objectives and to use online influence operations to increase societal tensions in the United States” and “most likely considers the current U.S. Administration a threat to the regime’s stability.”
