NUCLEAR FALLOUT: Russia’s war in Ukraine along with the failure of diplomacy to denuclearize North Korea have combined to upset the world nuclear order, a post-Cold War construct that guarded against the use of nuclear weapons with a series of arms control agreements undergirded by the common belief that nuclear war was unthinkable.
Now, both Russia and North Korea have raised the specter of resorting to nuclear warfare if they feel sufficiently threatened by the U.S. or the West.
In Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square last night, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, dressed in a white ceremonial uniform, oversaw a military parade to mark the 90th anniversary of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army and delivered a fiery speech in which he vowed to accelerate the production of nuclear weapons, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
‘THE FASTEST POSSIBLE SPEED’: North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test in five years after a self-imposed moratorium in 2018 during the brief flurry of diplomacy during the Trump administration. But since the election of President Joe Biden, Kim has spurned all efforts by the United States to revive the moribund denuclearization talks.
At last night’s parade, North Korea displayed its newest, biggest ICBM, the Hwasong-17, which is believed to have the ability to carry a nuclear warhead to any target in the continental United States.
“To cope with the rapidly-changing political and military situations and all the possible crises of the future … We will continue to take measures for further developing the nuclear forces of our state at the fastest possible speed,” Kim told the crowd.
“The fundamental mission of our nuclear forces is to deter a war, but our nukes can never be confined to the single mission of war deterrent,” he said. “If any forces attempt military confrontation with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, they will be perished.”
RUSSIA: ‘RISKS ARE RATHER SIGNIFICANT’: Meanwhile, in an interview with Russian state television, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine is “pouring oil on the fire” and risking nuclear confrontation.
“Everyone is reciting incantations that in no case can we allow World War III,” he said, according to a transcript on the Russian Foreign Ministry website. “Everyone is reciting incantations that in no case can we allow World War III,” he said, warning that while the risk shouldn’t be “artificially inflated,” they are “rather significant.”
Responding on Twitter, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Lavrov’s comments reflected what he called Russia’s “last hope to scare the world off supporting Ukraine.”
“Thus the talk of a ‘real’ danger of WWIII. This only means Moscow senses defeat in Ukraine,” he said. “Therefore, the world must double down on supporting Ukraine so that we prevail and safeguard European and global security.”
‘THE DANGER IS SERIOUS’: LAVROV WARNS RISK OF NUCLEAR WAR IS ‘CONSIDERABLE’
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is at Ramstein Air Base in Germany today, where along with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, he’s chairing a meeting of 40 defense leaders from NATO allies and other partner nations working to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defeat Russia.
“Ukraine needs our help to win today, and they will still need our help when the war is over,” Austin said at the opening session of the Ukraine Defense Consultative Group. “My Ukrainian friends, we know the burden that you will carry, and we know — and you should know — that all of us have your back, and that’s why we’re here today, to strengthen the arsenal of Ukrainian democracy.”
With Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov looking on, Austin praised the valor and courage of the Ukrainian military. “Ukraine has done a magnificent job defending its sovereignty against Russia’s unprovoked invasion, and Ukraine’s valor and skill will go down in military history.”
“You know the Battle of Iwo Jima took 36 days. The Battle of the Bulge lasted 40 days, and Ukraine has now beaten back the Russian military for 62 days,” he said. “So, your resistance has brought inspiration to the free world, even greater resolve to NATO, and glory to Ukraine.”
Austin’s remarks were livestreamed on the Pentagon’s website at 4 a.m. and will be replayed at 9 a.m. Austin’s closing remarks are scheduled for 11 a.m. and will also be livestreamed at https://www.defense.gov
HOW US MILITARY AID WILL HELP UKRAINIANS DURING DONBAS PHASE
ALSO TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken, just back from his weekend meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, is scheduled to testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at 10 a.m.
The topic is ostensibly the Biden administration’s FY 2023 budget request for the State Department, but the questions are expected to center largely on Ukraine.
PUTIN THREATENS CIA OVER SEEMINGLY KREMLIN-IMAGINED ASSASSINATION PLOT
MARIUPOL RESUPPLY: The last defenders of Mariupol continue to hold out against a furious Russian bombardment of the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works complex.
“The Russian enemy is carrying out massive fire and blocking of Ukrainian units in the area of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol,” according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. But overnight, a Ukrainian helicopter was able to get through to airdrop supplies, including food and ammunition, according to a member of the Ukrainian Parliament.
Elsewhere, “Russian forces are likely attempting to encircle heavily fortified Ukrainian positions in the east of Ukraine,” according to the British Defense Ministry’s Twitter feed. “The city of Kreminna has reportedly fallen and heavy fighting is reported south of Izium, as Russian forces attempt to advance towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north and east.”
“In the past 24 hours, six Russian enemy attacks have been repulsed in Donetsk and Luhansk, four tanks, five artillery systems, thirteen units of armored vehicles, fifteen units of motor vehicles, two tankers and one anti-aircraft gun have been destroyed,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported.
RUSSIA LIKELY CONDUCTED FALSE FLAG ATTACK IN MOLDOVA: REPORT
RUSSIA ATTACKS RAIL HEADS: “Russian forces conducted precision missile strikes against five Ukrainian railway stations in central and western Ukraine on April 25 in a likely effort to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcements to eastern Ukraine and Western aid shipments,” says the Institute for the Study of War in its latest situation report. “A series of likely coordinated Russian missile strikes conducted within an hour of one another early on April 25 hit critical transportation infrastructure in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Zhytomyr oblasts.”
The missile strikes came less than 24 hours after Blinken and Austin departed Ukraine by train to Poland and as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov repeated that Western supply shipment would be “a legitimate target.”
Nevertheless, there are no reports of any supply shipments being hit, and the ISW assess that Russia has likely used 70% of its total stockpile of precision missiles so far, and that despite the deaths and damage inflicted by recent attacks, “precision strike capabilities will remain limited and unlikely to decisively affect the course of the war.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: How US military aid will help Ukrainians during Donbas phase
Washington Examiner: US looking for Ukraine to create ‘weakened’ Russia to deter future invasions
Washington Examiner: Russia likely conducted false flag attack in Moldova: Report
Washington Examiner: ‘The danger is serious’: Lavrov warns risk of nuclear war is ‘considerable’
Washington Examiner: Russian explosions point to Ukraine’s embrace of the British special forces model
Washington Examiner: Putin threatens CIA over seemingly Kremlin-imagined assassination plot
Washington Examiner: Biden nominates career foreign service member as top envoy to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Australian prime minister says Chinese naval base in Solomon Islands is a ‘red line’
Washington Examiner: Pentagon taps former Lyft executive to be artificial intelligence chief
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden projects weakness in response to Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling
AP: Putin gets what he didn’t want: Ukraine army closer to West
Reuters: Finland, Sweden To Begin NATO Application In May, Say Local Media Reports
New York Times: Opinion: Anders Fogh Rasmussen: Putin Is Pushing Finland and Sweden Into NATO’s Arms
AP: France’s victorious Macron boosts weapons, stakes in Ukraine
Washington Post: Ground Battle May Mark War’s Turn
New York Times: Explosions Hit Transnistria, A Russian-Allied Region Of Moldova, Amid Fears Of A New Front In The War.
Breaking Defense: From Jordan To Japan: U.S. Invites 14 Non-NATO Nations To Ukraine Defense Summit
New York Times: Seeking Arms For Ukraine, Pentagon Buyers Scour Eastern European Factories
Air Force Magazine: U.S. and Allies Overcome Barrier to Providing Sophisticated Weapons to Ukraine Ahead of Ramstein Meeting
Air Force Magazine: AFRL’s New Space Labs to Advance Hybrid Architecture, Space Domain Awareness
Air Force Magazine: RQ-4 Pilot and Instructor Faulted in Crash that Destroyed $64 Million Drone
USNI News: Navy COVID-19 Vaccine Separations Drop As Injunction Takes Hold
Defense News: Marine Corps Declares Its Heavy Lift Helicopter Operational
Task & Purpose: The Navy And Marine Corps Are Taking Sexual Harassment Investigations Out Of Commanders’ Hands
Task & Purpose: How The U.S. Military Is Waging War On Climate Change
Calendar
TUESDAY | APRIL 26
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing To receive testimony on the health of the defense industrial base, with testimony from Ellen Lord, former undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; and David Berteau, president and CEO, Professional Services Council https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/lessons-from-the-edge/
10 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Review of the FY2023 State Department Budget Request,” with testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings
2 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center (Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual book discussion: Lessons from the Edge, with author Marie Yovanovitch, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/lessons-edge-conversation
2 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Sigur Center for Asian Studies discussion: “The New U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy,” with Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-new-us-indo-pacific-strategy
2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Committee Seapower Subcommittee hearing on Navy and Marine Corps investment programs in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2023 and the Future Years Defense Program, with testimony from Frederick Stefany, performing the duties of assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; Vice Adm. Scott Conn, deputy chief of naval operations for warfighting requirements and capabilities, and Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, deputy commandant for combat development and integration http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 27
9 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Hackers and Social Networks: How North Koreans Are Accessing Foreign Information,” with Steven Denney, lecturer at the University of Vienna; Peter Ward, doctoral candidate at the University of Vienna; and Martyn Williams, fellow at 38 North and the Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/hackers-and-social-networks
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee Hearing: “Department of the Air Force Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request,” with testimony from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown; and Chief of Space Operations, Gen. John Raymond https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2359 Rayburn — House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing: “FY2023 Budget Request for the Department of Homeland Security,” with testimony from Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas http://appropriations.house.gov Livestream at https://youtu.be/rhq5zghMGXQ
10 a.m. 2167 Rayburn — House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee hearing on “Review of FY2023 Budget Request for the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Programs. http://transportation.house.gov
10:30 a.m. 210 Cannon — House Budget Committee hearing: “Department of Defense FY2023 Budget,” with testimony from Defense Undersecretary/Comptroller and CFO Michael McCord testifies https://budget.house.gov Livestream at https://youtu.be/upbSrtAI_XI
1 p.m. — Defense One virtual discussion: “The Path to Marine Corps Modernization,” with Renata Spinks, assistant IT director/deputy CIO of information, command, control, communications, and computers at the Marine Corps; and Phil Osip, chief architect for DoD at RedHat https://event.on24.com
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Landforce Hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request of the Department of Defense for Fixed-Wing Tactical and Training Aircraft Programs,” with testimony from Andrew Hunter, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics; Air Force Lt. Gen. David Nahom, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs; Frederick “Jay” Stefany, acting assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition, and senior acquisition executive for the F-35 program; Rear Adm. Andrew Loiselle, director, Air Warfare Division; Lt. Gen. Mark Wise, deputy marine corps commandant for aviation; Air Force Lt. Gen. Eric Fick, program executive officer, F-35 Joint Program Office; Vice Adm. Ronald Boxall, director, force structure, resources, and assessment, Joint Staff; and Jon Ludwigson, director, contracting and national security acquisitions for the Government Accountability Office https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing on military and civilian personnel programs in the Department of Defense in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2023 and the Future Years Defense Program. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
4:30 p.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing on the Energy Department’s atomic energy defense activities and Defense Department nuclear weapons programs in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2023 and the Future Years Defense Program. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
4:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces: “Department of the Navy Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request,” with testimony from Jay Stefany, performing duties of assistant secretary of the Navy, research, development, and acquisition; Vice Adm. Scott Conn, deputy chief of naval operations, warfighting requirements and capabilities; Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, Deputy Marine Corps Commandant, combat development and integration https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
THURSDAY | APRIL 28
8:30 a.m. — McCain Institute for International Leadership Sedona Forum 2022: “Strategic Competition.” Agenda at https://www.thesedonaforum.org/2022-virtual-agenda Register at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sedona-forum
10 a.m. — House Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing on “FY2023 Budget Request for the Department of State,” with testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken http://appropriations.house.gov
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee “Member Day” hearing to receive testimony from members of Congress on their national defense priorities for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2141 Rayburn — House Judiciary Committee committee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security.” http://judiciary.house.gov
10:30 a.m. 2358-A Rayburn — House Appropriations Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Air Force Installations and Quality of Life Update.” http://appropriations.house.gov
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of the U.S. Navy,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday https://www.csis.org/events/future-us-navy-chief-naval-operations
1 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion: “The National Defense Strategy in American strategic planning, competition with China and the defense of Taiwan, and U.S. military strategy in the context of great power rivalry,” with former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge Colby, author of Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Competition https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness Hearing: “F-35 Sustainment,” with testimony from Steven Morani, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for sustainment / acting assistant secretary of defense for sustainment; Lt. Gen. Eric Fick, program executive officer, F-35 Joint Program Office; and Diana Maurer, director, Defense Capabilities and Management Team, Government Accountability Office https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. 2362-B Rayburn — House Appropriations Energy and Water Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “FY2023 Budget Request for the Department of Energy,” with testimony from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm http://appropriations.house.gov
3 p.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Defense spending in the states,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; Elizabeth Chimienti, program activity lead for diversification and realignment in the Office of Local Defense Community Cooperation; and Michael O’Hanion, director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/events/defense-spending-in-the-states
4:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations Hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for U.S. Special Operations Forces and Command,” with testimony from Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense special operations and low intensity conflict; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
4:45 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion with Latvian Ambassador to the United States Maris Selga on Latvian foreign policy, NATO and Ukraine https://www.eventbrite.com/e/latvia-and-baltic-security
FRIDAY | APRIL 29
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Seapower and U.S. Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific,” with Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn.; and Rep. Robert Wittman, R-Va. https://www.hudson.org/events/2107-virtual-event-seapower
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems hearing: “Department of Defense Information Technology, Cybersecurity, and Information Assurance for Fiscal Year 2023,” with testimony from John Sherman, CIO and acting DOD chief digital and artificial intelligence officer; Kelly Fletcher, principal deputy CIO, Office of the Secretary of Defense; and Margaret Palmieri, principal deputy chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, Office of the Secretary of Defense https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
11 a.m. — McCain Institute virtual discussion: “NATO & China: Has a European War Changed NATO’s Approach to China?” with Lithuanian Parliament Member Zygimantas Pavilionis, former Lithuanian ambassador to the United States; Bobo Lo, nonresident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis’s Democratic Resilience Program; and Jakub Janda, associate fellow at the Slovak Security Policy Institute https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Understanding the challenges of U.S. and allied defense innovation,” with James Taiclet, president, chairman, and CEO of the Lockheed Martin Corporation; Courtney Kube, national security and military correspondent at NBC News; and former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, vice chair of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Ukraine has done a magnificent job defending its sovereignty against Russia’s unprovoked invasion, and Ukraine’s valor and skill will go down in military history. You know the Battle of Iwo Jima took 36 days. The Battle of the Bulge lasted 40 days, and Ukraine has now beaten back the Russian military for 62 days. So your resistance has brought inspiration to the free world, even greater resolve to NATO, and glory to Ukraine.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking at the opening session of the Ukraine Defense Consultative Group.
