Influential conservative think tank says Russia — not ISIS — is greatest threat

Specifically, this year’s report found that Russia is the only “formidable” threat facing the U.S., in terms of capability. While the Kremlin was ranked as a “gathering” threat in last year’s report, this year’s index boosted it to the highest category — the only one to be so.

That matches the characterization of some of the military’s senior leaders, who all ranked Russia as the top threat facing the U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford said at his confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill this year that Russia is the nation that can “pose an existential threat to the United States.”

But it runs counter to how President-elect Trump has characterized Russia. Throughout the campaign, he downplayed Russia’s aggressive actions, spoke in admiring terms of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and expressed his desire to work with Moscow. Instead, Trump repeatedly cited ISIS as the main threat against the U.S.

Iran and terrorism in the Middle East also all became more capable over the past year, according to the report. Iran saw an increase of two categories, from an “aspirational” threat to a “gathering” threat. And while the 2016 report ranked Middle East terrorism as an “aspirational” threat, the latest report boosts it to “capable.”

Terrorists in the Middle East are also behaving more aggressively. The report ranked their behavior as “hostile” this year, a step above last year’s “aggressive” ranking. North Korea, on the other hand, is improving its behavior. It was ranked “hostile” last year, but is downgraded to “aggressive,” though that is still the second-most aggressive ranking.

Despite these growing threats, the 2017 Index of Military Strength did not revise its projections for the appropriate size of the military: 50 Army brigade combat teams, 346 Navy ships, 1,200 Air Force fighter aircraft and 36 Marine Corps battalions.

These numbers very closely match plans laid out by Trump on the campaign trail and he referenced the 2016 iteration of the annual Heritage report multiple times during the election.

With all the threats facing America, the report still found that, overall, the U.S. military posture is “marginal” and trending toward “weak,” the same characterization as the 2016 report.

In the specific services, the Army is rated as weak while others are all rated as marginal, maintaining the same rankings as in last year’s report. The readiness of the Navy, however, has improved from “marginal” to “strong.”

Overall, the report finds that readiness has suffered because of tight budgets and shrinking numbers of personnel, and that all branches are affected. The shortage of pilots and maintenance personnel in the Air Force is beginning to hurt the service’s ability to generate combat power. At some points in 2016, only 43 percent of the Marine Corps aviation fleet was ready for operational use. And the Army reported five major aviation accidents in the first two quarters of fiscal 2016 that could be a result of cuts to training hours, the report said.

In a statement, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., called the report “an important reminder.”

“The Heritage Foundation’s outstanding work on the 2017 Index of U.S. Military Strength serves an important reminder that we cannot move fast enough to put an end to sequestration once and for all, and return to a strategy-based defense budget that gives our service members the resources, training, and equipment they need to meet current and future threats,” McCain said. “As the report warns, our military has been degraded by years of underinvestment, poor execution of modernization programs, and the negative effects of budget sequestration. The result is that our military confronts growing capacity, capability, and readiness challenges that put America’s national security at greater risk. We cannot change course soon enough.”