The results of several hotly contested state Senate races in Northern Virginia should not be seen as foreshadowing the results of next year’s political contests, experts told The Examiner.
Democrats and Republicans will battle over a rare open U.S. Senate seat in Virginia next year, and a Democratic candidate could carry the commonwealth’s electoral votes for president for the first time since Lyndon Baines Johnson.
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Republicans have seen their grip on power in Virginia wane thanks largely to Democratic gains in vote-rich Northern Virginia. Republicans lost the past two gubernatorial elections and last year’s U.S. Senate race, and now Democrats have targeted three GOP state senators representing Northern Virginia districts this year. They hope not only to gain seats in that chamber, but also to put their party in position to capitalize in next year’s crucial federal races.
The Democrats may be getting overconfident, however.
“Is it a good thing for Republicans if they lose one, two or three of their seats in Northern Virginia? Obviously not, but a lot can change in a year,” the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato said.
“Voters in General Assembly races will be looking at totally different things than voters in 2008,” said Sean O’Brien, executive director of the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership in Charlottesville, Va..
For example, local matters such as illegal immigration, transportation, education and state taxes will dominate the legislative races. In 2008, however, voters are likely to be driven by other issues, such as homelandsecurity, Iraq and a national health care policy.
Northern Virginia voters who voted for Democrats Tim Kaine in the 2005 gubernatorial race and Jim Webb in last year’s upset of George Allen in the U.S. Senate race cannot be counted on to pull the lever for the Democratic presidential nominee, Sabato said. Of the candidates in the Democratic field, Sabato said, Barack Obama is likely to do the
best in Northern Virginia, an area integral to Doug Wilder’s 1989 election as the nation’s first black governor.
“Independent and high-income suburbanites like those that live in Northern Virginia look for opportunities to send messages about their values,” Sabato said. “They would love to vote for Barack Obama.”
