It wouldn’t be the first time in recent memory that Iran has attempted to assassinate someone in Washington, but Iran is not going to try to assassinate President Trump anytime soon.
I note this in light of comments from an Iranian parliamentarian, Ahmad Hamza, on Tuesday. Hamza is a representative from Kerman Province, the birthplace of Qassem Soleimani. And according to the Farsi version (thanks, Google Translate) of Iran’s ISNA, Hamza stated that Iran “will give $3 million in cash to anyone who kills Trump.”
The parliamentarian had more to say. Referencing moves by the European Union to suspend participation in the 2015 nuclear deal, Hamza suggested that Iran abandon its remaining nuclear commitments “as soon as possible and launching nuclear fission explosions.” Ironically, Hamza is apparently chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s Health Committee.
I say ironically because it would not be good for the health of the Iranian regime were these nuclear attack and assassination threats serious. Fortunately, they are not serious.
First off, Hamza isn’t a big player in the regime. Had these comments come from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or a top official in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they would demand more protective attention. Yes, these comments allow the regime to buffer its hardliner base with fiery rhetoric against America. But they do so in a way that, thanks to Hamza’s relative unimportance, mitigates the risk of an aggressive U.S. response.
Note also that ISNA’s English language website does not carry the story. Is that because the regime wants to avoid upsetting the Trump administration?
The broader context of Hamza’s speech also indicates its relative unseriousness. Claiming that millions of Kerman residents are ready to die to avenge Soleimani, the military general the United States killed in an airstrike this month, Hamza used the Khomeinist fetish for martyrdom as a populist rallying cry. The hyperbole is about base mobilization, not serious strategy.
Finally, there’s the obvious strategic calculation that Tehran must consider in relation to any plot against Trump. After all, Khamenei and his inner circle, even the most hardline of hardliners, know that to even attempt an assassination against Trump would likely mean the end of their regime.
So, Hamza’s comments are extreme. But they aren’t terribly serious. Unlike Soleimani’s threats were, that is.
