With his win in Tuesday’s open primary in the blue state of Wisconsin, Ted Cruz has now beaten Donald Trump in 11 of 21 states that have been contested to date outside of the South. Cruz has now beaten Trump in three Midwestern states (Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota—with Cruz having finished second and Trump third in the latter), one Northeastern state (Maine), three Plains states (Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas), three Western Frontier states (Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming), and one state outside of the Lower 48 (Alaska).
The South is Trump country, and he is undefeated there, having posted 11 wins and 0 losses in states ranging from Arkansas and Louisiana to the west and Kentucky and Virginia to the north. Yet Trump has now posted a winning percentage of just .429 (with 9 wins and 12 losses) outside of the South. None of the remaining contests are in the South (unless one considers West Virginia to be part of the South, in which case Trump will likely soon be 12-0 in Southern states).
It is striking that Cruz won in Wisconsin despite John Kasich’s continued presence in the race. While the Ohio governor is anything but a juggernaut, his presence helps divide the anti-Trump vote. Indeed, it is not clear what other purpose his candidacy is serving at this point.
Kasich’s won-lost record is now 1-31. To put that into perspective, his winning percentage (.031) is exactly half of the historical winning percentage of #15 seeds versus #2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Outside of his home state of Ohio, Kasich is 0-31, matching the historical winning percentage for #16 seeds. No last-second shot is going to save Kasich.
Perhaps even worse, Kasich has come within ten points of the winner in just 2 of 32 states (Ohio and Vermont). He has come within twenty points of the winner in just 5 of 32 states (Ohio, Vermont, Illinois, Michigan, and New Hampshire). In a majority of states, he has failed to come within thirty points of the winner. In most states, he has failed to come within twenty points of second place.
Yet Kasich’s presence clearly cost Cruz a win in Missouri (a 0.2-point Trump win in which Kasich got 10 percent of the vote), possibly cost Cruz a win in North Carolina (a 3-point Trump win in which Kasich got 13 percent of the vote), and certainly didn’t help Cruz in Illinois (an 8.5-point Trump win in which Kasich got 20 percent of the vote). Going forward, Kasich’s continued presence would undoubtedly cost Cruz additional wins, to Trump’s benefit.
Having now been beaten by double-digits in six states in his own Midwestern region (Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa), and having failed to come within ten points of second place in most of those states, the question seemingly must be asked: Isn’t it time for Kasich to step aside and let the Republican party have a straight one-on-one race between the two men who collectively have won 30 of the first 32 contests?
