Other than two postponed games due to COVID-19, there’s still a full slate of NFL to watch on Sunday. Here are three games you can’t miss, plus my picks to win.
Last week, my three picks went 2-1 straight up and against the spread. So far, this season, I’m 7-2 both straight up and against the spread.
Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2), 1 p.m. ET on FOX
The Browns enter this game with a winning record — now that’s a sentence you don’t get to write often! — after beating Washington’s football team by 14 last week. It’s the first time that the Browns have been over 0.500 since 2014!
Their offense’s identity is becoming much clearer after a disastrous season-opener against the Baltimore Ravens. The Browns are averaging over 170 yards per game on the ground right now. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have formed a powerful backfield tandem and are both averaging over 5 yards per carry.
The passing game, however, is ranked 30th in the league. That’s not scaring anybody, even with Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and Austin Hooper on the roster. The Browns clearly need the run to set up the pass, but luckily for them, they’re going up against a depleted Cowboys secondary.
The Browns will likely need to score a lot of points considering the recent play of the man in the middle of the huddle for the Cowboys, also known as “America’s Team.”
Dak Prescott is playing out of his mind right now and has put this team on his back. He has thrown for a mind-boggling 1,188 yards in just three games with five touchdown passes and two interceptions while completing 67.1% of his passes.
Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb could all end up with over 1,000 receiving yards on the season. The Browns defense got torched by Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. Prescott definitely seems capable of doing that as well.
Prescott will need to have a big game for the Cowboys to win, but Ezekiel Elliott needs to help lighten the load for his star quarterback. Through three games, Elliott is averaging just 73 yards per game and under 4 yards per carry. That’s not even close to being good enough for a player who demanded to be paid top money as one of the league’s best running backs.
The Cowboys defense has been a sieve this season. They’re giving up over 32 points per game and have the third-worst scoring defense in football. Dallas needs to make some stops on defense and try not to play from behind like it has for much of this season. Doing so will take a lot of pressure off of Prescott and the offense.
The line: Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
The pick: The Cowboys badly need a bounce-back win after getting beat by Seattle. I think they’ll get it on Sunday. I’m taking Dallas to win and cover the spread.
New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0), gameday TBD
Well, before the news of Cam Newton’s positive COVID-19 test on Saturday, this was a can’t-miss game. The NFL says it may be played on Monday or Tuesday, but that seems unlikely given what happened after multiple positive tests on the Tennessee Titans delayed their game this week until later in October.
Whenever the Patriots play the Chiefs, whether it’s this week or later in the season, it will still be a can’t-miss game.
Cam Newton has silenced a lot of doubters who wondered what kind of job he would do under center for the Patriots. He has thrown for over 700 yards and is completing 68.1% of his passes. In addition to throwing for a pair of touchdown passes, he’s also second on the team in rushing yards with 149 and first on the squad with four rushing touchdowns.
When it comes to receivers for the Patriots, there is Julian Edelman, and then, there is everyone else. He’s averaging over 86 receiving yards per game. No other receiver on the team averages more than 49.
The key to the Patriots offense and their entire season is the run game. They’ve done it by committee so far this season, and the results have been impressive. They’re averaging an NFL-best 178 rushing yards per game after racking up 250 yards on the ground in their win against the Raiders.
While Cam Newton has put up big numbers, what Patrick Mahomes has been doing is jaw-dropping.
Mahomes has thrown for just under 900 yards and nine touchdowns with no interceptions. He tore the Ravens defense apart last week, tossing four touchdown passes and throwing for 385 yards while completing nearly 74% of his passes.
It’s interesting to note that the Chiefs have the league’s fourth-best passing offense as well as the ninth-best rushing offense. Andy Reid’s offense allows running backs to flourish, and that’s what we’ve seen from rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He’s averaging 80 rushing yards per game and also has over 100 yards receiving on the season.
Don’t sleep on Kansas City’s sixth-ranked scoring defense. The Chiefs have surrendered 20 points in each of their three games, but the defense has stepped up in key moments. They frustrated and stymied Lamar Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP, last week on Monday Night Football.
Bill Belichick is famous for taking away what teams like to do most on offense. However, when the Chiefs can run the ball effectively and have Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Edwards-Helaire catching passes, they can beat you in a number of different ways.
My guess is that he’ll try to neutralize Kelce because the Patriots have a very experienced and talented secondary. They have four interceptions, tied for second-most in the NFL.
In order for the Patriots to win on Sunday, they’ll have to do two things well: pressure Mahomes into making uncharacteristic plays and mistakes and run the ball incredibly well. The Chiefs give up the sixth-most rushing yards per game, so that matchup could be the key for the Patriots to pull off the upset.
The line: Kansas City Chiefs (-7.0)
The pick: Remember when I said last week that I usually make it a point never to bet against Mahomes? I’m sticking to that rule this week. I’m taking the Chiefs to win and cover.
Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-1), 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
This is an interesting matchup between two teams that I’m still not entirely sure about.
After beating the New York Jets in their season opener, the Bills beat both the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Rams by 3 points each. The Rams I could understand, even after the Bills squandered a 25-point lead, but the Dolphins?
On the other hand, the Las Vegas Raiders fended off a feisty Carolina Panthers squad and upset the New Orleans Saints in Nevada in a pressure-filled home opener. Then, they got crushed by Cam Newton and the Patriots. The Patriots, one of the league’s best rushing teams, racked up 250 yards on the ground in the blowout win over the Raiders.
Here are some interesting stats for you:
- The Raiders score on over 55% of their drives.
- The Bills have the league’s third-best scoring offense. They’re averaging more points per game through the first three games than the Chiefs and the Ravens.
- Both teams are converting at least 50% of the time on third down.
- The Bills have the second-best passing offense in football and the second-most touchdown passes.
Unfortunately, the Raiders put a whopping 16 people on Wednesday’s injury report this week. Injuries have really strained their offensive line and wide receiver groups. Josh Jacobs was banged up last week and gave it a go but had a below-average game.
This game will come down to the quarterbacks.
Josh Allen has thrown for over 1,000 passing yards. He’s completing over 71% of his passes and has 10 touchdown passes with just one interception. He’s also second on the team in rushing yards and has both of Buffalo’s rushing touchdowns this season. Allen has engineered a pair of game-winning drives this season and seems to have committed fully to launching himself into the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks.
Derek Carr has thrown for just under 800 yards this season and is completing 74% of his throws. Something he and Jon Gruden definitely love is that he has thrown six touchdown passes and has yet to throw an interception this season. The Raiders have maintained a balanced approach offensively with 100 pass attempts and 88 rushing attempts through their first three games.
The line: Buffalo Bills (-3.0)
The pick: Allen is playing at an incredibly high level, and I think that will end up being the difference in this game. I’m taking the Bills to win and cover as road favorites.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington.
