As voters head to the polls today, the partisan impulse for Republicans to support Donald Trump has never been stronger. But according to the final New York Times/CBS poll, only 39 percent of Republicans say Trump has been good for the party, while 41 percent say he’s been bad for the party, and 16 percent say he hasn’t had much of an effect.
It’s far from certain that Trump will lose, but the result of this poll question suggests some implications for a post-Trump GOP. If Trump loses, you can expect the percentage of Republicans who say he was good for the party to drop and the already-high percentage of Republicans who say he’s bad for the party to rise. That would mean that Trumpist GOP congressional candidates in 2017 and 2018 will continue to have their work cut out for them typical primary races that feature only two or three candidates.
Keep in mind that the aforementioned poll numbers don’t even include Republicans who bolted the party and now identify as independents. So it seems remarkable that after six months as the GOP nominee, the percentage of Republicans who say Trump is good for the party is about the same as the percentage of the vote he got while the primaries were competitive.
On the other hand, if Trump wins tonight, this point is moot, and the Trumpification of the GOP has only just begun.
