OIL PRICES POISED TO ‘RISE BRISKLY’ IF TRUMP LEAVES IRAN DEAL: Global oil prices are poised to “rise briskly” if Trump leaves the Iran nuclear deal as he faces a key decision on the 2015 agreement by Saturday, according to a forecast by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

• Decision deadline: Trump must decide whether to continue to waive sanctions on Iran, including on its oil exports, per terms of the deal.

Under the deal, the U.S., France, German, Britain, China and Russia agreed to lift sanctions on Iran in return for limits to its nuclear capability.

• Prices already rising: U.S. oil prices have climbed above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014.

Energy experts have connected the recent price surge to geopolitical risks in oil-producing countries, including the possibility of renewed sanctions on Iran if Trump ends the nuclear deal.

Reimposing sanctions would reduce volumes of Iranian crude in international markets.

• Another surge expected: “Oil prices seem poised to rise briskly as the market’s initial reaction is likely to overshoot (although current sentiment has probably priced in at least a portion of the sanctions risk already),” an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies says.

The forecast notes the magnitude and duration of the price increase will depend on the details of reimposing sanctions on Iran and whether European countries also return to sanctions.

Iran’s exports of crude oil and condensates from have surged since sanctions were lifted in 2016. More than 60 percent of Iran’s oil exports go to Asia, with China, India, Turkey, and South Korea being the largest purchasers. The U.S. imports no Iranian crude.

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TRUMP SAYS COAL BARON DON BLANKENSHIP CAN’T WIN IN WEST VIRGINIA: President Trump on Monday declared that West Virginia Senate candidate Don Blankenship is unelectable and asked Republican voters to vote for either of the other two GOP candidates.

“To the great people of West Virginia we have, together, a really great chance to keep making a big difference,” Trump tweeted Monday morning. “Problem is, Don Blankenship, currently running for Senate, can’t win the General Election in your State…No way! Remember Alabama. Vote Rep. Jenkins or A.G. Morrisey!”

• Bad precedent: Trump was reminding voters about Roy Moore, who won the GOP nomination but lost in the general election after multiple sexual misconduct allegations, costing Republicans what had been seen as an easy seat to hold.

• Baggage claim: Blankenship, a former coal CEO, criticized Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in an ad last week for creating millions of jobs for “China people” and in turn receiving tens of millions of dollars from his “China family,” a reference to his wife, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao.

Blankenship is a convicted criminal who spent a year in prison following a guilty charge in a mine safety case.

• ‘Trumpier than Trump’: Blankenship fought back Monday, accusing the GOP establishment of misinforming Trump about him and labeling himself “Trumpier than Trump.”

• What does backing Morrisey mean? Trump wants voters to back West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey who, if elected, would likely support much of his deregulation agenda.

• A Pruitt ally in court: Morrisey help lead the 28 states in federal court against the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan, with then-Attorney General Scott Pruitt of Oklahoma.

HOUSE ENERGY SPENDING BILL BUMPS UP BUDGET TO NEARLY $45 BILLION: The House Appropriations Committee released a fiscal 2019 spending bill Sunday night for national defense nuclear weapons activities, the Army Corps of Engineers, various programs under the Department of Energy, and other related agencies.

The bill provides a $1.5 billion top up over fiscal 2018 levels, with an even bigger bump in Trump’s fiscal 2019 request by just over $8 billion

“Funding is targeted toward national security efforts – including nuclear weapons activities – and energy and water infrastructure investments,” the committee said.

Just over $11 billion goes to weapons activities, which is a $558 million increase from the fiscal year 2018 enacted level. The funds would be used to “maintain a strong nuclear deterrence posture and address aging infrastructure.”

Another big winner is water infrastructure, with the Army Corps of Engineers receiving $7.28 billion to “provide a much needed influx of funds into the nation’s water resources infrastructure.”

Yucca Mountain would see a $100 bump up from last year’s fiscal levels.

ILLINOIS TO SUE EPA FOR EXEMPTING FOXCONN FROM POLLUTION CONTROL RULES: Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, a Democrat, said Friday she plans to sue the Environmental Protection Agency for allowing a new Foxconn manufacturing plant to run without strict pollution controls.

• Rule breakers: The EPA last week identified 51 areas in 22 states and the District of Columbia that do not meet the strict 2015 ozone rules established under former President Barack Obama, which is the first step to implementing the standards under the Clean Air Act. Much of California and many downwind states on the Atlantic Coast were on the list.

• Exemption granted: The EPA exempted Racine County, Wisconsin, a region just north of the Illinois border where Taiwan-based electronics manufacturer Foxconn is building a $10 billion plant. The exemption means Foxconn does not have to install stringent air pollution control equipment.

The county is known to have heavily polluted air. An EPA staff analysis of ozone levels in Wisconsin published in December found that the county’s air exceeded federal ozone limits.

WOMEN PROTESTING PIPELINE BY SITTING IN TREES COME DOWN: A mother and daughter who had camped out in trees to block a proposed natural gas pipeline through their property came down from their protest Saturday after a federal judge threatened to fine them.

• Tree sitters: Theresa Terry, 61, and her daughter Theresa Minor Terry, 30, had been perched on the trees since April 2, stopping workers for the Mountain Valley Pipeline from clearing trees on a path through their land outside of Roanoke, Va., according to the Washington Post.

• Back to earth: A federal judge Friday said the pipeline developers had legal authority to be on the land, and found the women in contempt, giving them until 11:59 p.m. Saturday to come down.

U.S. District Judge Elizabeth K. Dillon said she would have imposed a $1,000 fine against each woman for every day they continued to defy the court.

• Pipeline network: The 303-mile, $3.5 billion Mountain Valley, developed by Pittsburgh-based EQT Corp. and partners, would carry shale gas from West Virginia to southern Virginia.

CLAMORING BEGINS OVER ROLLBACK OF MAMMAL PROTECTIONS IN DEFENSE BILL: The House’s version of a key defense spending bill includes measure to roll back limits on permitting incidental kills of whales and dolphins.

• Leaking bill: A marine conservation group, Oceana, received a leaked copy of the National Defense Authorization Act, which it passed on to John.

• Extending kill permits: The group is concerned about page 5 of the bill, which “includes an amendment to the Marine Mammal Protection Act that would allow the Department of Defense to apply for Incidental Take Permits to harm marine mammals, including whales and dolphins, every 10 years rather than every five years.”

• Navy wanted it: The changes to the mammal protections was evidently requested by the U.S. Navy.

• Sonar and underwater explosive testing: “The Navy wants to weaken protections for whales, dolphins and other marine mammals from the use of sonar and underwater explosives — not because these protections are impairing military readiness, but simply to save time and money,” said Oceana federal policy director Lara Levison.

Similar amendments have been popping up in other major pieces of legislation, including the Federal Aviation Administration’s authorization bill.  

ROB BISHOP SUPPORTS STATEHOOD FOR PUERTO RICO: House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Rob Bishop, R-Utah, said Friday he supports statehood for Puerto Rico.

“I want to be very clear: I’m very supportive of Puerto Rico statehood,” Bishop said at a press conference in San Juan. Bishop committed to allow his committee to vote on a bill paving the way for Puerto Rico to become a U.S. state.

Bishop, whose committee oversees the island territory, was touring the island as it struggles to recover from Hurricane Maria, which destroyed the island’s power grid.

RUNDOWN

Wall Street Journal Saudis move to push oil prices higher, in break from past policy

Bloomberg Iran opposes higher oil prices, signaling divide with Saudis

New York Times How storms, missteps and an ailing grid left Puerto Rico in the dark

Axios Inside Scott Pruitt’s ‘miserable’ bunker

Wall Street Journal Oil costs how much? How the oil rally took forecasters by surprise

Bloomberg VW CEO given rare U.S. safe-passage deal in emissions scandal probe