Sen. Joe Biden, reeling from a fourth-place finish in Iowa, opened Friday night’s Democratic presidential debate by predicting he would lose New Hampshire as well.
“I took a hit in Iowa, and I’ll probably take a hit here,” Biden said when asked why voters choose to go with Sen. Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg in Iowa, who Biden has said would be risky choices.
Biden went on to recall that Sanders won New Hampshire by over 20 points in 2016.
His statement was clearly an effort to manage expectations heading into the nation’s first primary. Biden has been hoping to survive the early primary races so that he can get to South Carolina, where he is much stronger due to his relative popularity among black voters. A comeback there on Feb. 29 would put Biden back in the race heading into the massive delegate haul on Super Tuesday, which is on March 3.
But if history is any indication, it’s been difficult for candidates to suffer a series of bad defeats without losing significant support in successive states.
In just the few polls taken since Iowa results trickled in, Biden has already seen his support drop like a rock — in New Hampshire, where he could be looking at another fourth-place finish. And one poll taken before Iowa even showed his lead in South Carolina narrowing amid weakening support among black voters.
Back-to-back fourth-place finishes wouldn’t exactly make the case that Biden is the most electable.
