By finishing third in last night’s Iowa caucuses, Marco Rubio joined Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as a candidate with a realistic chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination. Rubio pulled himself out of the pack of long-shot candidates and sure losers in the large GOP field – by itself, an important achievement.
What made Rubio’s showing especially impressive was how close he was behind Trump, who had led in pre-caucus polls. That wasn’t all. Rubio not only survived a wave of nasty negative ads by Jeb Bush, his one-time political ally in Florida. He also overcame complaints by Iowa Republicans that he had taken the state’s role as the first contest in the nomination battle too lightly and not campaigned there enough.
Despite Rubio’s Iowa breakthrough, pulling ahead of Cruz and Trump won’t be easy. Two things have to happen for Rubio to advance. First, he needs to finish first or second in next Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary – well, perhaps a close third could work again.
And second, the other “establishment” candidates – Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, John Kasich – must begin dropping out of the race after next week. New Hampshire is usually the place where the winnowing process starts. And it needs to in the Republican race.
That is why New Hampshire is the most important early state. And it explains why some candidates skip Iowa entirely, as John McCain did in 2008. He still won the nomination. In the 2016 cycle, Christie, Bush, and Kasich gave Iowa short shrift in favor of concentrating on New Hampshire.
Rubio will get a boost in New Hampshire from his Iowa showing, but Cruz may get one too after beating Trump. But the media often treats the underdog candidate more kindly than the frontrunner. Chances are, Rubio will get the benefit of this bias.
At least for now, Trump’s lead in polls in New Hampshire is so huge that he remains the favorite. But while Rubio exceeded expectations and ran ahead of his poll numbers, Trump under-performed on both counts.
The biggest fear of the Rubio campaign is that Bush and Kasich may hang on until March 15, the day of the Florida and Ohio primaries. Bush was governor of Florida from 1998 to 2006. Kasich is currently governor of Ohio. They would drain votes that probably would have gone to Rubio and allow Trump to win. For Rubio, that outcome could be fatal.
But Rubio has several major advantages over Trump and Cruz. For one thing, he appears to be the most electable Republican. The Clinton campaign regards him as potentially her strongest Republican rival. In polls matching her against Republican candidates, Rubio does better than Cruz or Trump. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll last month, Clinton led Trump by 10 points, Cruz by 3, and Rubio by one.
In Iowa last night, Clinton ran poorly among young people, 17 to 29. Her opponent, Bernie Sanders, won 84 percent of that group. Rubio beat his GOP foes among young voters. Clinton, 68, is 24 years old than Rubio.
Rubio is perceived more favorably by voters than Trump and Cruz are. Trump has such negatives that Democrats are eager for him to run against Clinton. And Cruz is viewed unfavorably by non-conservative independents and moderate Republicans.
Rubio has the broadest base of support. The press has labeled him an “establishment” favorite, but he was a Tea Party candidate when he was elected to the Senate in 2010. The Senate Republican campaign committee endorsed Rubio’s GOP opponent, Charlie Crist.
His ability to gain a sizeable chunk of the Hispanic vote is critical. In 2012, Mitt Romney got 29 percent of Hispanics, which was crippling to his campaign. To win in 2016, Republicans must increase that level of support. In a December poll by Telemundo and MSNBC, Rubio attracted 38 percent of Hispanics, Cruz 29 percent, and Trump 27 percent.
In the end, Iowa did at least as much for Rubio as it did for Cruz. Politics, after all, isn’t science. Sometimes third place can do wonders.
