Age and gender could be the deciding factors in Georgia’s pricey Senate runoff between Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger Herschel Walker, according to a new survey.
The poll, commissioned by AARP, puts Warnock ahead of Walker 51% to 47%, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
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The Fabrizio Ward-Impact Research poll is the first conducted after a runoff race was declared when neither candidate met the 50% threshold needed for an outright win.
Warnock leads voters between the ages of 18 and 49 by a 24-point margin, while Walker leads among voters over 50. However, 90% of older voters surveyed said they were “extremely motivated” to vote in the Dec. 6 race, while only 75% of voters younger than 50 said they were equally motivated.
“If Warnock wins this race, it’s because younger voters actually turn out,” pollster Bob Ward said, adding that the demographic is key to keeping Warnock competitive.
The poll also showed gender may play a big role in the runoff.
Warnock is leading Walker among female voters by 11 points, while Walker has a 5-point advantage when it comes to male voters.
Walker has been dogged by several scandals during his campaign, including claims he encouraged two women to get abortions despite campaigning on a strict anti-abortion platform. His credibility has also come into question after comments he made about his education and ties to law enforcement were proven untrue.
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Warnock has had his own share of scandals, including allegations that the church where he serves as senior pastor evicted tenants for having as little as $30 due. He has also been hamstrung by President Joe Biden’s unpopular policies and economic woes, including inflation.
Both candidates have denied the allegations that have been leveled against them.
