Moody’s downgrades Russia’s debt to junk

Credit-ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Russian government debt to junk status Friday, citing the effects of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the fallout from low oil prices and a fallen ruble.

Moody’s cut Russia’s sovereign debt from Baa3 to Ba1, which is junk status.

The agency gave three reasons for the move, which had been under consideration since January:

1. The continuing crisis in Ukraine and the recent oil price and exchange rate shocks will further undermine Russia’s economic strength and medium-term growth prospects, despite its fiscal and monetary policy responses.

2. The government’s financial strength will diminish materially as a result of fiscal pressures and the continued erosion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves in light of ongoing capital outflows and restricted access to international capital markets.
3. The risk is rising, although still very low, that the international response to the military conflict in Ukraine will trigger a decision by Russian authorities that directly or indirectly undermines timely payments on external debt service.

Russia is “expected to experience a deep recession in 2015 and a continued contraction in 2016,” Moody’s warned, thanks to the drop in the price of oil and the sanctions placed on the Russian economy by the U.S.

Furthermore, the ratings agency noted that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could precipitate a decision by Russia’s government, led by President Vladimir Putin, to delay payments on loans.

Russian debt was previously cut to junk status by Standard & Poor’s last month.

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