With the long campaign season finally (and mercifully) coming to a close, it’s time to engage in a few fearless predictions for how Tuesday night will look. Bearing in mind that I thought Jerry Kilgore would beat Tim Kaine in 2005 and that Jerry Ford would beat Jimmy Carter in 1976, here’s how I think the chads will fall:
Nationally, the GOP will pick-up 71 House seats. That assumes a mighty big wave, but as such, it also means Republicans get the 10 seats they need to take control (in name if not reality) of the Senate. There will be little time for rejoicing, though, as the only real mandate to come of the elections will be “leave us alone.” Should Republicans stray from that message, they will find themselves right back in the wilderness in 2012.
Here’s how things will unfold in Virginia:
Rep. Rob Wittman handily defeats Democrat Krystal Ball in the first district, but Ball finds a second career on the racy European version of “Big Brother.” She won’t win there, either, but will earn a spot on the “Daily Mirror’s” Page Three.
Rep. Glenn Nye, who has run, ducked and dodged the President for months will be sent packing. Republican Scott Rigell wins, but soon finds even his fellow Republicans find him too slick for his own good.
Democratic Rep. Bobby Scott easily wins Virginia’s third district race but remains a member in proud standing the “obscurity caucus.”
Republican incumbent Randy Forbes cruises in the fourth district…and begins to have designs on statewide office.
Fifth district incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello loses his re-election bid to the low-wattage, tax-hiking state Sen. Robert Hurt. A quiet, and rather silly, campaign has already begun to have Perriello run statewide in 2013. As for Hurt…well, they say if you want a friend in politics, get a dog. Hurt quickly adopts a cat.
Republican incumbent Bob Goodlatte wins the sixth district without breaking a sweat. Valley Democrats, confused, hurt and embittered attempt to pin the blame on someone, but can’t muster a quorum.
Eric Cantor wins the seventh district, becomes House majority leader and immediately begins plotting a coup against speaker-to-be John Boehner. The coup fizzles because Cantor refuses to show-up for the caucus meeting (he was at a book signing in Gaithersburg).
Democrat Jim Moran squeaks-out a victory based upon inertia alone in the eighth district despite alienating just about every living, breathing soul in the commonwealth. He spends his entire term having to fend-off questions about his brother, former Delegate and would-be Democratic Party of Virginia chairman Brian Moran, who lobbies on behalf of for-profit schools. The Washington Post (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kaplan Learning Centers) covers none of it.
Republicans finally defeat Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher in the ninth district. Their secret formula? Choosing a candidate (Morgan Griffith) who doesn’t even live in the district. Democrats retaliate by nominating Jon Stewart in 2012.
In the 10th district, Republican incumbent Frank Wolf wins another term, giving the three-decade incumbent another opportunity to vote for term limits.
And in the 11th district, Gerry Connolly will be buried in the GOP wave by Keith Fimian. Connolly will refuse to accept the defeat and continue to show up at his Capitol Hill office until mid-spring, when it’s stopped being funny and started to become really creepy.
And remember folks: 2011 is an election year in Virginia, when all 140 members of the General Assembly will be on the ballot. Please try to contain your enthusiasm.
