Seven things to watch for in next GOP debate

They won’t enjoy the benefit of a national television audience again for another 35 days, when they travel to Las Vegas for the final presidential debate of the year. That means that debate No. 4 is almost assuredly a crucial turning point in the GOP primary, as top candidates move to lock down support, underdogs try and fight their way into the top tier, and candidates on the ropes grasp to avoid a holiday season spiral into irrelevance.

“The debate [on Tuesday] is full of pitfalls for some and opportunities for others,” said debate coach and Republican operative Brett O’Donnell, who is advising Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. “We still have not had a good, substantive economic discussion of the issues through these first three debates.”

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The debate, set for the Milwaukee Theater in downtown, is a joint venture of the Fox Business Network and the Wall Street Journal. And, it shook things up before it ever got started. For the first time, there will be fewer than 10 candidates on the prime time stage. That should allow more time for the contenders to spar with each other and for the journalists moderating the 9 p.m. Eastern Time debate to grill them on the issues.

Anticipation is heightened after the previous debate — on financial news network CNBC — ended up focusing less than expected on jobs and economic growth. CNBC took fire from the candidates, conservative activists and the Republican National Committee for questions deemed biased and unworthy of a presidential forum. Fox Business moderators Neil Cavuto and Maria Bartiromo, both senior anchors at the network, have indicated their preference for an issues-based prime time debate.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee missed the polling threshold for the two-hour cablecast. But their addition to the one-hour, 7 p.m. undercard, and exclusion of Graham and former New York Gov. George Pataki, could breath new life into the stale event. The hosts determined invitations according to candidate performance among GOP voters in an average of select national surveys. Among the prominent Republicans expected in the audience: House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

Here’s what to watch for Tuesday evening in the prime time and undercard debates:

Can Christie use the undercard debate to propel his candidacy?

Christie’s demotion to the kiddie table comes just as he appears to be making headway in New Hampshire and Iowa. It appears to be a blow. But in the first debate in Cleveland in August, businesswoman Carly Fiorina used the undercard to bring positive attention to herself, and she arguably won the evening. On a stage with just three other competitors, Christie, among the field’s most talented communicators, has a chance to do the same, if he can take capitalize.

“He will do well, just as he has in the other debates,” senior Christie adviser Mike DuHaime said. “Certainly more time will help him dive deeper into the issues, just like he does at his town hall meetings.”

Christie ranked fifth in the Washington Examiner’s latest presidential power rankings.

Does the coming clash between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio begin on Tuesday?

The two senators are running among the most strategic, effective campaigns of 2016. They still trail Donald Trump and Ben Carson, but have clearly separated from the rest of the pack, putting themselves in position to challenge the front-runners, and each other, for the top spot, by the time the first votes are cast in Iowa on Feb. 1.

The senators have consistently delivered winning debate performances; with a focus on communicating their distinct messages and avoiding fights with others. Sources close to Cruz, of Texas, and Rubio, of Florida, say no changes are planned heading into Milwaukee. “Cruz will continue to focus on his constituency with a targeted message,” said Saul Anuzis, a Michigan Republican insider supporting the Texan.

But Cruz in a recent interview with CNN indicated a willingness to engage, calling Rubio a “moderate” in response to a question about what differentiates the two of them. Rubio spokesman Alex Conant declined to respond to Cruz’ remarks, saying in an email: “We expect/want debate to be positive and substantive.” Still, with a little help from moderators interested in stoking the competition, there could be fireworks between the two Cuban American Republican stars.

Does Trump go on the attack? Can Carson handle the scrutiny?

Since the CNBC debate in late October, Trump, the billionaire developer and reality television star, has been relentless in his attacks on Carson and Rubio. Trump’s offensive coincides with the release of polls that showed he’s no longer an undisputed front-runner. Will he level those attacks in person Tuesday evening? His approach could reveal how Trump views the state of the race and his standing in it.

Carson faces a test of his own. Fluid policy discussions on a 30-60 second debate time clock aren’t his strong suit. But with front-runner status comes increased scrutiny, and voters intrigued by Carson’s unique background as a renowned pediatric neurosurgeon could be looking for him to prove he has the policy chops to serve in the Oval Office. That could particularly be the case in a debate that is supposed to focus heavily on the economy.

Can Jeb Bush stay afloat?

The former Florida governor limped out of last debate with the punditocracy administering last rites for his once formidable campaign.

The eulogy wasn’t totally without merit. Bush’s attack on Rubio on stage in Boulder, Colo., fell flat and made him look weak, and his own donors are the ones saying that he’s running out of time to resuscitate his campaign. On Monday, Bush registered a distant fifth in the RealClearPolitics.com average among GOP primary voters nationally, in Iowa and in New Hampshire, the state that is supposed to be the center of his comeback.

Bush hasn’t been shy about telling reporters that he knows he needs to improve in the debates, which have become key measuring sticks for GOP primary voters. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker exited the race following a disastrous debate at the Reagan Library in September. Especially with the next debate more than one month away, Bush needs come to play in Milwaukee, and begin closing the sale on his comeback prospects.

“Every moment is important and builds on the next,” said Jim Dyke, a Republican operative backing Bush in South Carolina. “He needs to express the magnitude of the moment we are in as a country.”

Can Fiorina catch lightening in a bottle — again? Does Bobby Jindal benefit from facing more able competition?

Fiorina, a businesswoman who rose to become CEO of technology giant Hewlett Packard, clawed her way from dismissed underdog to viable front-runner on the basis of two strong debate performance, first in Cleveland in August, then the next month in Simi Valley, Calif., at the Reagan Library.

But Fiorina has seen her poll numbers dip since then, leaving questions as to how much staying power she really has. Fiorina’s capable performance in the third debate, less than two weeks ago, did nothing to reignite her campaign. The FBN/WSJ debate, with fewer candidates on stage than any previous faceoff, presents her with a fresh opportunity, if her early fall bounce represented more than just 15 minutes of political fame.

Jindal, meanwhile, has been stuck in the undercard debate since Cleveland. It hasn’t done him much good, despite his high-energy presentation, conservative governing record and strong command of the issues. The governor’s supporters are hoping that top tier competition like Christie and Huckabee will bring a new appreciation for his campaign and translate to higher poll numbers. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum rounds out the four-candidate undercard.

Huckabee and Santorum won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Jindal and Christie are the two immediate past chairmen of the Republican Governors Association. “There’s no question this is the most important undercard debate yet,” a Jindal backer said. “You have the past two Iowa winners with the past two RGA chairmen.”