The latest surveys of swing states in the election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton find the GOP candidate lagging in critical battlegrounds, with both nominees still sitting below 50 percent in expanded three- and four-candidate fields.
Clinton has a lead of 4, 9, and 10 percentage points in three polls of Pennsylvania published since Monday, reflecting a wider gap than what existed prior to several surveys concluded in the days leading up to last week’s presidential debate. In five polls completed between September 22 and 25, Clinton led by only one to three points.
A trio of surveys of North Carolina released this week show the Democrat with advantages of one, three, and six points, which, considered as a bunch, point toward an improvement for Clinton in recent weeks. It had been a month since she led the Tar Heel State by three points in a survey, and the six-point edge is her best result since early August. The pollster showing Clinton with that cushion, Elon University, last had Trump ahead by a point in mid-September, a time when the Republican was tied or slightly ahead in multiple surveys of the state.
The other swing state to have been polled multiple times this week, Colorado, favors Clinton by 11 points in two separate results—potentially leading indicators that the Democrat has seized a substantial advantage after pre-debate surveys showed her and Trump in a tight contest.
A few other battlegrounds to have had their temperature taken once this week include Virginia, where the Democrat is up seven points; Florida, which she leads by five; Nevada, where she is up three; and Ohio, the one electoral vote-rich prize among swing states to have consistently favored the Republicans in recent weeks, where Trump is up five. The Virginia and Florida results are roughly in line with the Real Clear Politics average (Clinton +7 and +3, respectively). And the Nevada survey is one of three post-debate polls of the state that average to a small lead for Clinton. A quartet of polls in the middle part of September showed Trump with a slim edge there.
Taken together, the results reflect a halt in momentum for the Trump camp in the states he needs it most. Although Ohio has boded well for the GOP candidate, he trails in the two other “must-win” swing states mentioned by Jeffrey H. Anderson in his October 3 magazine story “Electoral Mapmaking“, North Carolina and Florida. Five plausible paths for Trump that include North Carolina and Florida as a given each include states in which Trump trails by an average of at least three points, according to the Real Clear Politics average: Colorado (-3), Pennsylvania (-4), Michigan (-5), New Hampshire (-6), and Virginia.
