House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., appears to be the odds-on favorite to replace House Speaker Paul Ryan, who said he would hold onto his title until he retires in January.
The other most likely candidate, Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., has said he’s interested but only if McCarthy declines.
On the day he announced he’s serving his last term as a House member, Ryan declined to say who should replace him.
“I think we have a fantastic leadership team,” Ryan said Wednesday when asked about the next GOP leader. “I have more thoughts on this. I think this is probably not the right time to get into that, and I’ll share those thoughts later.”
“That election is in November, so it’s not something we have to sweat right now,” he added.
But most conversations have fixated around McCarthy, who launched his ill-fated bid for the speakership three years ago, and Scalise, who is nearly a year removed from nearly losing his life after being shot at a congressional baseball practice.
Scalise’s stance that he’ll only seek out the speaker’s gavel if McCarthy bows out means the gavel is most likely McCarthy’s. He is viewed as the prohibitive favorite, even though his attempt to become speaker three years ago imploded due to lack of full support among Republicans.
His supporters say things have changed since then: specifically, his strong relationship with President Trump and his improved relationship with the House Freedom Caucus and Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C.
Trump’s close relationship with McCarthy is likely to help him, as Trump is expected to weigh in on the race. While McCarthy and Scalise are both close allies of the president, Trump’s actions could prove decisive if he decides to put his finger on the scale.
“I think it will be an extremely powerful and key input in the whole process, and so to suggest that the president of the United States, certainly the leader of our party, has no input would not be accurate,” said Meadows. “I think the president will certainly weigh in on who the next speaker should be, and that, I think, that input will be significant.”
The names of some dark horse contenders have also been thrown around. After saying he is not pining for the top spot in the caucus repeatedly, Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., floated Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, as someone with the qualifications for the post that is in leadership and warned the race is not set in stone between the two Ryan deputies.
“No, I don’t think so,” Meadows said when asked if the list started and ended with McCarthy and Scalise. “Oh no.”
Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., said that it’s worth looking to Texas for Ryan’s replacement.
“You could always get a Texas candidate given the size of the delegation,” Cole said. “It’s too early to tell right now.”
Meanwhile, GOP lawmakers seemed thankful that Ryan would stay on in his post while Republicans sort out who their next leader will be.
“I’m glad Paul is staying through the end of his term. I’m glad he’s staying as speaker. It gives us consistency,” said Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., adding that he doesn’t view it as a distraction.
Another immediate issue on the minds of Republicans is fundraising, as Ryan was a prolific fundraiser. Ryan personally raised $40 million of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s $110 million raised this cycle, and has been admired as a leader by many within the caucus.
“The void that he leaves no doubt will be filled, but he has big shoes, and it’s going to be hard to find someone to replace the kind of leader Paul Ryan has been,” said Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis.
Others were more optimistic, and said Ryan now might be more free from his duties to help raise cash. “It’s no bigger concern than what concerns we had before,” said Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill.
Susan Ferrechio contributed to this story.
