On Tuesday, February 28, 2012, voters in Michigan will go to the polls and vote for their preferred candidate for the GOP nomination. What looked like a blow out three weeks ago for Mitt Romney has become very close. So what will happen in the very important state of Michigan?
Michigan has one of the most intriguing electorates in the country. Four things contribute to this:
- The unions dominate the Flint/Detroit areas. It has been this way since the rise of the auto industry.
- Northern and Western Michigan are very conservative, but you have to drive distances to get to your ballot box
- The Upper Peninsula will vote for those that send campaign lit, staffers/surrogates, and/or has the most ads on their TVs and radios.
- It is an open primary, meaning Democrats can and will vote.
Two types of Democrats vote in GOP primaries: the pragmatist and the antagonist. The pragmatist votes for the best possible Republican if the Democrats lose the general. The antagonist votes for the least plausible underdog candidate. They want to upset the front-runner and hopefully make it easier on the Democratic candidate in the general election. Romney wants the pragmatic Democrats to turn out and vote. Santorum wants the antagonist Democrats to turn out and vote.
The rural area of Michigan is similar to Iowa, however, this does not mean Santorum has these voters locked up. Santorum practically lived in Iowa before the caucus, visiting every county. In Michigan, he can’t and won’t. Here is where we will see how being the bearer of the momentum will stack up to the candidate with the organization and money to compete in all 5 areas of the state: Detroit, Southwest, Central, Northern and the Upper Peninsula.
Romney is a trusted quantity among the older voters in the state and he performs well around urban centers. The questions is how he will do in those areas on Tuesday? Can Santorum get a high enough turn out in the rural areas and among antagonist Democrats to cause an upset?
My Prediction: While Michigan tends to go with the underdog, it also is the state that tends to the stop of the momentum by insurgent candidates (see Dole 1988, and Buchanan 1992). I think Santorum’s momentum is stymied, and Mitt Romney will win. Even though it will be closer than originally expected, the fact that no one else has the organization, resources, name recognition and endorsements that Romney does will allow him to win by a margin larger than in 2008.
