Republicans are worried they could jeopardize control of the Senate if a controversial ally of President Trump becomes the party’s nominee for a supposedly safe seat.
Kris Kobach, Kansas’s former secretary of state and failed 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee, is running to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts in his home state. Yet the immigration and voter ID hardliner faces two challenges on his current quest for public office, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
If Kobach wins the Republican primary election on Aug. 4 but loses the general on Nov. 3, it will be the first time Republicans haven’t held the Kansas Senate seat since 1932, the longest tenure for the party. Such a defeat could risk the Senate’s balance of power, with the chamber’s composition of 53 seats for the GOP and 47 for the Democratic and independent caucus likely to change.
For Republican strategist Ron Nehring, even though Kansas generally leans to the political right, the state was “absolutely capable” of electing Democrats, given the “very competitive political environment.” He pointed to Kansas’s Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, who beat Kobach during the midterm cycle, as the most pertinent example.
“Republican candidates must prove the ability to both secure the base and reach voters beyond that base, adding them to a majority coalition. That is often as much a function of personality as it is of policy,” Nehring said.
Kobach’s chances in the fall against likely Democratic opponent Barbara Bollier, a state senator who represented Kansas’s largest county as a GOP lawmaker before switching parties for the Senate contest, has become a divisive primary issue.
Kobach and Republican rival Roger Marshall, who has served Kansas in the U.S. House of Representatives for the past four years, are statistically tied in most polls of the crowded field. Kobach, widely known for his close relationship with Trump and his penchant for political theatrics, is a weak fundraiser compared to Marshall.
Marshall, however, has his own weaknesses. He’s hamstrung by lower name recognition and is continuing to define himself to voters, convincing them he’s not a centrist.
University of Kansas politics professor Patrick Miller said the state GOP is putting pressure on some of the other candidates vying for the Senate seat to drop out before the June 1 filing deadline. Based on the assumption Kobach is not the best nominee, particularly after 2018, they hope to cancel out any spoiler effect the other hopefuls may have on Marshall, he said.
“I think that’s a valid assumption, but one that needs data,” Miller told the Washington Examiner. “[Kobach’s] argument has been that there are a lot of voters who might vote for a Democrat for governor, but they’re not gonna vote for a Democrat for Senate.”
According to Miller, while there were no publicly available surveys quizzing voters on the Marshall-Bollier match-up to bolster Marshall’s electability argument, opinion research shows the Kobach-Bollier race is “a coin flip.” In reality, Bollier, a strong fundraiser, will have to peel off some Trump supporters from Kobach to taste victory, a possibility Miller says is “concerning” for Republicans, yet could still be “a hard sell.”
Fears Kobach won’t prevail over Bollier are fueling a Washington, D.C.-based, GOP operative-led whisper campaign encouraging Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to enter the foray. However, Pompeo, a former Kansas Republican House lawmaker and CIA director, has shown little interest in the idea. The same people have also been lukewarm on Marshall, which Miller suggested could be because they see Marshall “as making mistakes,” or that they believe Kobach is the apparent nominee and “don’t want to anger him” in case he wins.
“Kobach is kind of calling the bluff of a lot of Republicans that if he gets the nomination, it’s not like they’re gonna give up on the seat. They’re gonna come in with super PAC money and donations to his campaign to support him,” Miller said.
“If we get to August and Kobach is the nominee, then the race will be a very attractive investment opportunity for Democrats,” Miller said. “But if Marshall is the nominee, then maybe it won’t be. But then again, that narrative rides on the assumption that Marshall is actually a stronger candidate.”
Independent analysts, such as those at the Cook Political Report, haven’t named Kansas a toss-up state as they have for the Republican-held Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina seats up for election. Kansas, though, has been added to the “lean Republican” column along with the two Georgia seats, Iowa, and Montana. The same pundits hint Democrats could be forced to relinquish their Alabama seat after November, putting that state in the “lean Republican” ledger.
