Alabama’s Democratic Senate candidate Doug Jones is beating Republican Roy Moore by 10 percentage points, according to a Fox News poll released Monday, one day before voters head to the polls.
The poll found just 40 percent of voters support Moore, the fiery social conservative who multiple women accuse of sexual misconduct, while 50 percent support Jones.
Several other polls show Moore beating Jones, a former U.S. attorney that Democrats hope can win an upset victory in the special election Tuesday.
President Trump won the state by nearly 30 percentage points last year, but allegations against Moore have made the race fiercely competitive. Moore has denied misconduct claims and has stressed the importance of keeping the seat from “abortion Jones.”
If the Fox News poll is accurate, late-deciding voters could heavily influence the result. Eight percent of respondents said they were undecided, and another 2 percent supported a write-in candidate.
The poll, conducted Dec. 7-10 with 1,127 registered voters, found 39 percent believed allegations against Moore and 33 percent did not. Allegations include age-inappropriate romantic interest and unwanted sexual contact, in one case with alleged use of force.
The survey was conducted during a timeframe during which one of Moore’s accusers, Beverly Young Nelson, acknowledged adding “notes” to an alleged yearbook inscription that she offered as evidence she knew Moore before he allegedly attempted to force himself on her in a car. The Moore campaign and Trump described the admission as favorable to Moore.
Surveys that show Moore leading include an Emerson College poll released Monday finding an ascendant Moore up 9 points over Jones, taking 53 percent to Jones’ 44 percent. That poll was conducted with 600 very likely voters on December 7-9.
One major factor that cannot be reflected in polling is the effect of early voting.
“The ballots have already been printed and a lot of people have already voted,” Alabama Secretary of State John Merril, a Republican, told the Washington Examiner on November 9, the day the first four Moore accusers were identified in the Washington Post.
Despite Trump’s enthusiastic backing, other prominent Republicans denounced Moore or said they cannot back him.
Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., said Sunday that he voted early for a write-in candidate, explaining that Moore accuser Leigh Corfman’s claim that she was 14 when Moore, then in his 30s, took her to his home and put her hand on his penis “was enough for me.”
Moore is known for refusing to remove a 10 Commandments sculpture he installed in a courthouse, which resulted in his 2003 ouster from office as chief justice of Alabama’s supreme court. Still, the Fox News poll found that Moore’s support among religious voters is slipping.
Support for Moore among white evangelical Christians dropped 8 percentage points from November, to 65 percent, the poll found. But an overwhelming majority of Republicans, 81 percent, still support him.
