Republicans in Congress are mounting an assault on President Trump’s proposal to slap onerous tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. On his plans to meet with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, they’ve gone to ground.
Had a Democratic White House granted the rogue North Korean leader a presidential audience while still brandishing a nuclear weapons program that threatens the U.S., the Republican condemnation would have been harsh and sustained. But Trump’s diplomatic olive branch to Pyongyang doesn’t threaten GOP congressional majorities in the midterm.
The tariffs do — or so Republicans fear, especially after Friday’s robust February employment report of 313,000 jobs created.
Republicans are attributing the results to passage of the $1.4 trillion tax overhaul, and want voters to do the same. They see the law, and the economic boom they hope it fuels, as critical to what they concede are challenging re-election prospects, and worry tariffs will dampen growth.
“I disagree with this action and fear its unintended consequences,” House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said Thursday in a statement, after Trump announced plans to levy tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum. As of late Friday, Ryan had not issued a statement on Trump’s acceptance of an invitation for a summit from Kim Jong Un.
The speaker’s political team, in an interview with the Washington Examiner, said it believes 30 to 40 seats are truly in play. This is lower than other estimates, including from the Republican-friendly Koch political network, which forecasts 80 seats that could flip. The party’ majority stood at 24 seats, days ahead of a tossup special election in southwestern Pennsylvania.
To ensure House Republicans have the resources to withstand these political headwinds being (fanned by voter dissatisfaction with Trump’s polarizing leadership,) Ryan plans to spend the first to seven months of the year focused primarily on fundraising. He plans to spend the last four months leading up to the election traveling to campaign for candidates.
The speaker’s advisers did not provide an exact figure it has budgeted for Ryan to raise through the end of June. But they pointed to what the speaker raised in the first six months of last year, $44 million, and said he plans to meet or exceed it.
Key to the effort, they emphasized, is selling tax reform to the public. The image of the law, christened the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, has improved significantly since it was enacted in December. But Republicans concede much work left to do.
“I’m worried — because the media certainly doesn’t help us — about the selling and education of tax reform,” said Jake Kastan, team Ryan’s deputy executive director. “That’s why we’re telling our members, in every interview, in every meeting … organically it’s going to happen, but we have to keep selling it.”
Democratic enthusiasm and the president’s image are the two other factors keeping Republicans up at night.
The Democrats are energized to turn out and vote against Trump. In the upscale suburban battlegrounds where Republicans are most vulnerable, many voters who have historically voted for GOP candidates, but could sit on their hands this fall, or support the Democrat, because of lingering dissatisfaction with the president.
Trump’s job approval rating continues to hover around 40 percent, a bit low for Republicans to get comfortable about 2018.
At issue are not so much the policies the White House has pursued, although tariffs and the engagement with North Korea — neither of which was on any Republican’s radar just a few weeks ago — could end up having a negative impact on voters’ impressions of the president’s leadership.
Rather, the problem is Trump’s personal conduct, his penchant for caustic behavior and outbursts on social media.
“If he’d put the Twitter feed away, what a glorious thing — what a glorious thing. But I just don’t think that’s going to happen,” said Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill., who represents a suburban Chicago district that is expected to be a top Democratic target.
