Phoenix — Arizona politics has been buzzing in the last couple of weeks since a Rasmussen poll suggested that Republican Sen. John McCain might be vulnerable in a primary fight against a more conservative challenger. The poll, released November 20, showed McCain ahead of potential opponent J.D. Hayworth, the radio host and former congressman, by just two points — a 45 percent to 43 percent margin. Yes, McCain — the longtime incumbent and recent presidential candidate — is a mere two points ahead of a challenger who isn’t even a challenger yet.
I talked to Hayworth recently, and he is clearly interested. “We are in the midst of taking a very serious look at this,” he told me. “I’ve talked to any number of people whose opinions I respect, and they are saying a plausible case could be made that you’re ahead of McCain.”
Hayworth was careful not to say anything directly critical of McCain, but his words seemed calculated to send the message that McCain’s time is past. “I think we all respect John as a historical figure,” Hayworth told me. “The question is, who is best prepared to represent Arizona with a consistent, commonsense philosophy in the U.S. Senate?”
Since Hayworth called McCain a “historical figure,” I asked whether Hayworth might go after McCain on the age issue — McCain would be 74 years old when sworn in for a new term in January 2011. “Let me stress, it’s not about age,” Hayworth said. “I’m not on that kick. It’s not age, it’s time in office, and I think there’s just a feeling that people want to see a U.S. senator not only from Arizona, but for Arizona. I have a lot of respect for John, and if I decide to run, I will be running for the U.S. Senate, not against John McCain.”
Hayworth is still trying to pay remaining legal fees from an investigation into his ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff. (In that probe, after a lot of looking, the Justice Department in 2007 decided not to launch a formal investigation of Hayworth.) Hayworth told me the remaining debt was $142,500, but that was before a fundraiser held last week, which Hayworth hoped would significantly reduce that.
I asked Hayworth about the possibility of dividing the Republican party so seriously that it might lose in the general election. “I don’t take the approach that a contested primary means instant gloom-and-doom and defeat for the party that’s having the primary,” Hayworth said. “I think in many ways it revitalizes the party and makes whoever emerges a more viable candidate.”
As much as Hayworth sounds like he’s running, there are a number of close observers of Arizona politics who believe he can’t win and therefore, that he won’t, in the end, enter the race. “I don’t think he will,” says one longtime state pol. “He would have to leave his radio job, and that’s a big risk I don’t see him taking. I think he’ll talk about it constantly and use it as much as possible to raise money to pay off his debts.” Still, the pol adds, “That Rasmussen poll is very hard to dismiss. Nobody I’ve spoken to will dispute those numbers. But what we’re sure of is John McCain would win handily if Hayworth got into the race.”
Another Arizona political veteran also believes McCain would prevail, but worries about a Hayworth challenge. “Low-turnout primaries are always dangerous,” this veteran says, referring to a primary in which only the most motivated voters show up to vote. “I think McCain will be re-elected, but I think the primary could get quite ugly. They are going to have to work very hard on getting out the vote. It could be tough for McCain, if it’s a low-turnout primary.”
